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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Jan 02 2013

Central Banks vs. Weaker Economies

The transition to 2013 has been stubbornly uncertain so far in terms of U.S. fiscal policy. Monetary policy, on the other hand, has in essence “doubled down” around the world, as central banks pitch in to push back on recession with the tools they have access to.

ECRI’s latest report outlines some lesser-known measures of economic activity – revealing surprising shifts that have already taken hold in economies around the globe. This analysis shows whether there is light at the end of the tunnel in the near term after all.

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The Tell-Tale Chart

ECRI December 7, 2012

Reviewing the indicators used to officially decide U.S. recession dates, it looks like the recession began around July 2012. More