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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Apr 01 2013

Can Germany Hold the Eurozone Up?

Germany has been the envy of most developed economies because it was the first country to pull out of recession following the Global Financial Crisis. Currently, the consensus view is quite optimistic about the German economic outlook. This comes despite the fact that industrial production has shown negative growth for several months and even GDP shrank in the fourth quarter.

Is such weakness in the German data temporary, or is it a sign of a worsening German economy? In this context, ECRI has just completed an in-depth study about the German outlook, with analyses ranging from the overall economy and the manufacturing sector to employment and exports. This ECRI study reveals surprising results, with clear answers to whether the German economy will continue to be resilient, or if it is losing steam.

Related News & Events

Recession in the Yo-Yo Years

ECRI March 8, 2013

Year-over-year growth in nonfarm payroll jobs has now dropped to an 18-month low, and household job growth has dropped to a 16-month low. See images and notes on the state of the business cycle. More

 

Interview on Jobs & Recession

CNBC April 7, 2013

How the latest jobs data squares with ECRI's recession call. More

 

Nominal GDP Growth Falls Again

ECRI April 26, 2013

Yoy nominal GDP growth at or below 3.7% has been seen only in recessionary contexts. In Q1/2013, it slipped to 3.4% from 3.5% in Q4/2012. More