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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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May 02 2013

BoE Accepts 40th Consecutive Month of Above-Target Inflation

ECRI has just updated its United Kingdom Future Inflation Gauge (UKFIG). The value of this forward-looking gauge lies in its ability to predict cyclical turns in U.K. inflation.

While inflation has declined markedly since 2011, it has plateaued well above the Bank of England’s (BoE) 2% target, with March’s reading marking the 40th straight above-target month. However, with economic growth remaining the BoE’s focus, investors do not expect an increase in the benchmark rate before 2016.

The latest update to the UKFIG clarifies the future trajectory of U.K. inflation, indicating whether the BoE’s growth efforts and tolerance for above-target inflation will soon push inflation higher.

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What Wealth Effect?

ECRI May 31, 2013

The latest drop in consumer spending is consistent with the recessionary plunge in yoy U.S. import growth into negative territory. More