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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Apr 04 2013

Australian Inflation in Check?

In its April meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept the cash rate unchanged at its lowest reading since the Global Financial Crisis. The governor of the RBA stated that earlier monetary easing is already “having an expansionary effect on the economy,” but the inflation outlook “would afford scope to ease policy further,” if necessary.

In this context, we examined the latest cyclical movements of ECRI’s Australian Future Inflation Gauge, which is designed to anticipate cyclical turning points in the Australian inflation rate. Interestingly, it already provides important insights about where Australian inflation could be headed in the coming months.

Related News & Events

Job Growth is Slowing

Fox Business News March 8, 2013

ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan discusses how, even with the stronger-than-expected jobs report, year-over-year payroll jobs growth has fallen to an 18-month low. More

 

Nominal GDP Growth Falls Again

ECRI April 26, 2013

Yoy nominal GDP growth at or below 3.7% has been seen only in recessionary contexts. In Q1/2013, it slipped to 3.4% from 3.5% in Q4/2012. More