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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Mar 18 2014

Australian Exports to China Defy Chinese Slowdown

Stoking slowdown fears, Chinese exports plunged 18% in February, but imports grew 10% in both January and February – handily beating consensus expectations. With Chinese raw materials imports recently reaching record highs, Australia, a major raw materials exporter to China, appears better positioned than many expected. Can Chinese demand for Australian exports continue to evade the Chinese slowdown?

ECRI’s latest analysis examines the outlook for growth in Australian exports to China, providing insight into whether they can continue to sidestep the Chinese slowdown.

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Price Signals of Global Slack

ECRI March 14, 2014

World trade price growth has seen almost continuous deflation since early 2012, and its renewed weakness suggests even more slack in the global economy. More

 

Failure to Launch

ECRI February 8, 2014

As ECRI had predicted, the recent consensus that the economy was "taking off" has turned out to be dead wrong, with U.S. growth falling sharply of late. More