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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Jul 13 2012

Australian Export Prospects

The stronger-than-expected Australian export figures for May have bolstered confidence in the Australian economy’s ability to withstand the global economic headwinds. Particularly, record Chinese imports raised hopes that the Australian economy could escape unscarred from the current global economic turmoil.

Despite these developments Australian export growth has slowed considerably from its mid-2011 high as we warned last September.  We have recently updated our analysis of Australian export growth prospects to see if they will again weaken.

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Recession Here

Bloomberg July 10, 2012

It takes time to realize that a recession has already begun. More

 

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