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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Oct 31 2012

Assessing Global Sectoral Synchronization

Years ago ECRI demonstrated that global interdependence had resulted in fairly synchronized economic cycles, particularly since the 1990s, stemming from increasing financial and trade linkages. Still, with the U.S. showing some “better-than-expected” economic releases, the decoupling meme has reemerged.

Expanding on our earlier research of global economic synchronization, ECRI has just completed an in-depth analysis about the degree of international synchronization at the sector-specific level, namely with regard to the services, manufacturing and construction sectors. The study provides insight into the future direction of the global economy in terms of the timing of cyclical turning points between pairs of countries, with implications for the view that the U.S. may have decoupled from other major economies this time around.

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The 2012 Recession: Are We There Yet?

ECRI September 13, 2012

Nine months ago we knew that, sitting here today, most people probably would not realize that we are in recession – and we do believe we are in recession. More