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Oct 31 2012

Assessing Global Sectoral Synchronization

Years ago ECRI demonstrated that global interdependence had resulted in fairly synchronized economic cycles, particularly since the 1990s, stemming from increasing financial and trade linkages. Still, with the U.S. showing some “better-than-expected” economic releases, the decoupling meme has reemerged.

Expanding on our earlier research of global economic synchronization, ECRI has just completed an in-depth analysis about the degree of international synchronization at the sector-specific level, namely with regard to the services, manufacturing and construction sectors. The study provides insight into the future direction of the global economy in terms of the timing of cyclical turning points between pairs of countries, with implications for the view that the U.S. may have decoupled from other major economies this time around.

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