A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Dec 24 2013

After 'End' of French Recession, GDP Goes Negative

The French economy continues to struggle as third quarter GDP growth dropped back into negative territory just a few months after the nation’s finance minister proclaimed the end of the French recession based on a single quarter of positive GDP growth. Additionally, in line with weaker GDP, growth in French exports, which represent more than a quarter of GDP, went negative in the third quarter following a pop in the prior quarter. If there is to be hope for a French recovery, exports will likely need to reverse course.

ECRI’s latest analysis examines the growth outlook of French exports, providing insight into whether exports will help support the economy in the coming months.

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Becoming Japan: Update

ECRI December 11, 2013

The ECB rate cut was spurred by a "surprise" drop in Eurozone inflation in Oct. But, U.S. inflation was even lower then, and the Fed's key inflation measure fell further below its 2% target. More


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