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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Oct 04 2012

A Turning Point for Japan?

ECRI has just updated its Japanese Long Leading Index (JALLI). The value of this index lies in its ability to anticipate cyclical turns in the economy before conventional leading indexes.

While the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) mid-September announcement to expand its asset-purchase program was not anticipated by the consensus, recent data seem to support the BoJ’s action. Last week’s data releases showed Japanese industrial production falling much more sharply than most had expected, with core CPI remaining deflationary for the fourth consecutive month. Furthermore, with the stimulative effects of post-tsunami reconstruction waning, the Japanese economy is in a precarious position.

ECRI’s latest update to the JALLI provides insight into whether the Japanese economy is on the path to recession, or if the BoJ action is likely to extend the recovery.

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The 2012 Recession: Are We There Yet?

ECRI September 13, 2012

Nine months ago we knew that, sitting here today, most people probably would not realize that we are in recession – and we do believe we are in recession. More