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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Dec 20 2013

A Dove-Shaped Taper

Five years after it began a series of QE campaigns, the Fed announced a modest pullback in its asset purchases earlier this week. Stock markets cheered the news, with most economists apparently agreeing with the Fed’s view that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. But is there really a fundamental improvement in economic activity?

In this context, ECRI has just completed an in-depth study based on our objective coincident and forward-looking indicators of growth, employment and inflation. We also review headline GDP and jobs data to asses if recent hopes of a stronger U.S. recovery will soon become a reality.

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Becoming Japan: Update

ECRI December 11, 2013

The ECB rate cut was spurred by a “surprise” drop in Eurozone inflation in Oct. But, U.S. inflation was even lower then, and the Fed’s key inflation measure fell further below its 2% target. More