A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

All Reports

May 21 2012

Drivers of Inflation and Interest Rates

Asynchronous recessions among major world economies in the second half of the 1990s allowed the U.S. to enjoy low inflation and healthy growth, as the Fed was able to keep interest rates low in the context of imported disinflation. Currently, however, inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, while economic growth is clearly slowing.

ECRI has just completed a new study on the direction of inflation and interest rates, including cyclical and structural perspectives. The results have important implications for those concerned about future shifts in the direction of inflation and interest rates.

Related News & Events

Revoking Recession: 48th Time's the Charm?

ECRI May 9, 2012

Has personal income growth ever remained this low for three months without the economy going into recession? More


Rising GDP Doesn't Rule Out Recession

CNN May 11, 2012

Yes, U.S. GDP is still rising, according to the latest reports. But that doesn't mean we've dodged a new recession. More


Recession Update

Bloomberg May 9, 2012

For the past three months, year-over-year real personal income growth has stayed lower than it was at the start of each of the last ten recessions. More



ECRI June 4, 2012

ECRI principals will be in Oslo to meet with professional members on June 4, 2012.