A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

ECRI uses a highly nuanced “many-cycles” view to understand the complex dynamics of the global economy.
To monitor the U.S. economy alone, we use an array of more than a dozen specialized leading indexes in the context of the ECRI framework for incorporating various sectors and aspects of the economy.
The ECRI framework covers 21 economies, incorporating well over 100 proprietary indexes designed to be comparable across borders.

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Cyclical Shift for Chinese Economy

Over the past year, China has made countless policy moves to curb runaway inflation, but the current manufacturing slowdown may be more than they may have bargained for.

The People's Bank of China recently lowered its reserve requirement ratio for the first time in two years. Does this mean that China's policy makers will now focus more on economic growth and not inflation?

ECRI's latest in-depth study of the Chinese economy paints a clear picture of its cyclical outlook for both inflation and growth, with important implications for how this latest policy move is likely to impact those respective cycles going forward.

Full Report: November 29, 2011: International Cyclical Outlook

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Cyclical Shift for Chinese Economy

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