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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Dec 01 2011

Cyclical Shift for Chinese Economy

Over the past year, China has made countless policy moves to curb runaway inflation, but the current manufacturing slowdown may be more than they may have bargained for.

The People’s Bank of China recently lowered its reserve requirement ratio for the first time in two years. Does this mean that China’s policy makers will now focus more on economic growth and not inflation?

ECRI's latest in-depth study of the Chinese economy paints a clear picture of its cyclical outlook for both inflation and growth, with important implications for how this latest policy move is likely to impact those respective cycles going forward.

Related News & Events

Recession Call Intact

CNBC November 7, 2011

Lakshman Achuthan joined CNBC to discuss ECRI's recession call announced on Sep. 30, and explained that over the past century most recessions began during quarters with positive GDP growth. More

 

An Ugly Forecast That’s Been Right Before

New York Times October 9, 2011

LET’S face it: economic forecasting is an act of sheer hubris. Which, of course, only incites people to do it. More