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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Dec 02 2011

Confusion Masks Brazilian Reality

Despite signs of weakening, Brazilian officials are hoping for relatively strong economic growth over the next year, recently adopting accommodative policies to ensure their 5% growth target is met. Meanwhile, central bank forecasters have slashed GDP growth predictions 11 times since August, settling at 3.1%. At the same time, the head of the IMF has lauded Brazil for their adeptness in weathering the economic crisis spreading throughout the world.

Quite aside from the different views making headlines, ECRI’s Brazilian Long Leading Index (BRLLI) is showing a clear picture of where the Brazilian economy is headed in the coming months, highlighting a variant view.