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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Jul 16 2012

Can Consumers Save the German Economy?

The Bundesbank raised its 2012 GDP growth forecast to 1.0% from 0.6% in June partly on the expectation of strong domestic consumption. With government spending set near 2011’s level, the bank is counting on the German consumer as a driver of growth, even though household consumption growth increased only marginally in the first quarter of 2012.

ECRI’s latest analysis clarifies if the German consumer will indeed be able to fuel German growth, as the Bundesbank expects, or leave the bank wanting.

Related News & Events

Recession Here

Bloomberg July 10, 2012

It takes time to realize that a recession has already begun. More

 

The Threat From a Recession

Barron's July 7, 2012

ECRI says an economic contraction is imminent. Why does this matter to commodities? The raw-materials sector tends to get hit harder than the rest of the economy in a recession. More