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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

Reports & Indexes

Recession - Recovery Watch

ECRI leading indexes turn before the economy does, allowing us to presage business cycle inflection points well before the consensus. We closely monitor over 100 proprietary cyclical indexes, and our written reports for professional members deliver in-depth, nuanced analyses of shifting risks in economic growth and inflation worldwide.

We publicly release the latest data on two leading indexes of growth and inflation that are presented in this basic U.S. economic dashboard.

  • The U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of economic activity is available every Friday.
  • The U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (FIG) is a monthly leading index of inflation.

Cycle Dashboard

Check on these two indexes every Friday: The FIG shows how hot the economy is running; the WLI tells you if it's about to race ahead or stall. If either plunges or rises convincingly, it signals a shift in the risk of a turning point.

Read Mr. Greenspan's Blind Spot

WEEKLY INDEXES(GROWTH RATES,%)
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) is a composite leading index that anticipates cyclical turning points in U.S. economic activity by 2-3 quarters. Cycles in economic activity are captured by our U.S. Weekly Coincident Index, which is a comprehensive measure of the economy's current state, tracking indicators of production, employment, income, and sales.
MONTHLY LEADING, COINCIDENT AND
LAGGING INDEXES (GROWTH RATES, %)
These indexes summarize leading indicators that turn before the U.S. economy does (monthly version of WLI, top line), coincident indicators that turn in step with it (U.S. Coincident Index, middle line) and lagging indicators that turn after the economy does (U.S. Lagging Index, bottom line). Horizontal dashes near the bottom mark off U.S. business cycle recessions.

About ECRI Reports

About ECRI Reports

Expert analysis of evolving cyclical outlook.

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Testimonial

In March [2009], the month the market scraped bottom, ECRI went forth with [a] tablepounding historical observation-. The implication could not have been clearer that a market rally, when it started, would be no sucker's affair but the real McCoy.
- Grant's Interest Rate Observer
"penetrating analysis"
- The New York Times
"eerily accurate"
- National Public Radio
ECRI can justify a certain smugness now that business cycles are back in fashion. The institute called the last two recessions and the current recovery months ahead of the pack.
- Harvard Business Review
For ourselves, in this cycle, we'll line up with ECRI.
- Grant's Interest Rate Observer
Nothing in the world compares with ECRI's insights into the business cycle. Those insights form a key part of our strategic and tactical management of asset class allocations. We have never been disappointed in following what ECRI's indicators suggest is likely to occur next.
- ECRI Professional Member