Reports & Indexes
ECRI leading indexes turn before the economy does, allowing us to presage business cycle inflection points well before the consensus. We closely monitor over 100 proprietary cyclical indexes, and our written reports for professional members deliver in-depth, nuanced analyses of shifting risks in economic growth and inflation worldwide.
We publicly release the latest data on two leading indexes of growth and inflation that are presented in this basic U.S. economic dashboard.
- The U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of economic activity is available every Friday.
- The U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (FIG) is a monthly leading index of inflation.
Check on these two indexes every Friday: The FIG shows how hot the economy is running; the WLI tells you if it's about to race ahead or stall. If either plunges or rises convincingly, it signals a shift in the risk of a turning point.
LAGGING INDEXES (GROWTH RATES, %)
About ECRI Reports
Expert analysis of evolving cyclical outlook.
ECRI [is] the most accurate forecasting institution in the world.
Congrats on having the only coherent analysis available.
ECRI can justify a certain smugness now that business cycles are back in fashion. The institute called the last two recessions and the current recovery months ahead of the pack.
I have to pay attention to those people and indicators that have pointed in the right direction – even when they've gone against the crowd (and my opinion at the time). One such outfit is the Economic Cycle Research Institute, whose various leading indicators actually have done just that – lead where things were headed.
This approach works like a charm.
(ECRI’s) forecast of the [Great] recession helped us anticipate reduced merchandise sales; we proactively revised our inventory forecasts down months ago, and that has helped to greatly minimize the inventory swell and need for markdowns.
- How often are indexes updated?
- When does ECRI release its latest data and reports?
- What information do members get that the public doesn't?
- How do I read the Weekly Leading Index (WLI) and Future Inflation Gauge (FIG) "dials" shown on the public Reports and Indexes page?
- Why does ECRI say we are in an era of more frequent recessions?
- What are the components of ECRI's leading indexes?
- Why didn't the WLI signal recession in 2010?