Reports & Indexes
We help our clients manage their exposure to cycle risk. ECRI has been studying economic cycles – and forecasting recessions and recoveries – longer and more reliably than anyone, anywhere. We do this by making sense of the often-confusing big picture through unique cyclical insights based on more than 100 proprietary indexes covering 22 countries.
ECRI leading indexes turn before the economy does, allowing us to see the signs of economic cycle inflection points well before the consensus. We closely monitor our large array of proprietary cyclical indexes, and provide written reports and consultation to clients, delivering in-depth, nuanced analyses of shifting risk in economic growth and inflation worldwide.
As a public service, and as an example of our work, ECRI publicly releases limited data on one of our leading indexes:
- The U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of economic activity is available every Friday after it has been shared with clients.
- The U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (FIG) is a monthly leading index of inflation.
Cycle Dashboard
Check on these two indexes every Friday: The FIG shows how hot the economy is running; the WLI tells you if it's about to race ahead or stall. If either plunges or rises convincingly, it signals a shift in the risk of a turning point.
LAGGING INDEXES (GROWTH RATES, %)
About ECRI Reports
Testimonial
For ourselves, in this cycle, we'll line up with ECRI.
ECRI continues to be an important resource in determining our tactical allocation. For over a decade their economic cycle forecasts and detailed research topics have been a critical part of our decision making process.
I find that ECRI's historical knowledge of economic cycles and data is almost as important to me as your indicators of future cycles.
In March [2009], the month the market scraped bottom, ECRI went forth with [a] tablepounding historical observation-. The implication could not have been clearer that a market rally, when it started, would be no sucker's affair but the real McCoy.
Nothing in the world compares with ECRI's insights into the business cycle. Those insights form a key part of our strategic and tactical management of asset class allocations. We have never been disappointed in following what ECRI's indicators suggest is likely to occur next.
ECRI is perhaps the only organisation to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm. Jan. 2005
FAQ
- How do I read the Weekly Leading Index (WLI) and Future Inflation Gauge (FIG) "dials" shown on the public Reports and Indexes page?
- What is the difference between business cycles, growth rate cycles, and inflation cycles?
- What are the components of ECRI's leading indexes?
- What information do clients get that the public doesn't?
- When does ECRI release its latest data and reports?
- How often are indexes updated?
- What does ECRI do?
- How do I get more information about ECRI client services?