Reports & Indexes
ECRI leading indexes turn before the economy does, allowing us to presage business cycle inflection points well before the consensus. We closely monitor over 100 proprietary cyclical indexes, and our written reports for professional members deliver in-depth, nuanced analyses of shifting risks in economic growth and inflation worldwide.
We publicly release the latest data on two leading indexes of growth and inflation that are presented in this basic U.S. economic dashboard.
- The U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of economic activity is available every Friday.
- The U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (FIG) is a monthly leading index of inflation.
Check on these two indexes every Friday: The FIG shows how hot the economy is running; the WLI tells you if it's about to race ahead or stall. If either plunges or rises convincingly, it signals a shift in the risk of a turning point.
LAGGING INDEXES (GROWTH RATES, %)
About ECRI Reports
Expert analysis of evolving cyclical outlook.
ECRI is perhaps the only organisation to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm.
ECRI [is] the most accurate forecasting institution in the world.
Inflation Ahoy! We're indebted to the ECRI, that unnapping watchdog of inflation, for the FIG data.
Over the last 15 years, [ECRI] has gotten all of its recession calls right, while issuing no false alarms.
ECRI can justify a certain smugness now that business cycles are back in fashion. The institute called the last two recessions and the current recovery months ahead of the pack.
As an investment strategist, I need to navigate the many twists and turns in the emerging economic landscape with as much foresight as possible to know when to take or avoid risk. In this quest, ECRI’s array of leading indices, specifically designed to predict and navigate economic turning points, have been an indispensible tool.
- How often are indexes updated?
- When does ECRI release its latest data and reports?
- What information do members get that the public doesn't?
- How do I read the Weekly Leading Index (WLI) and Future Inflation Gauge (FIG) "dials" shown on the public Reports and Indexes page?
- Why does ECRI say we are in an era of more frequent recessions?
- What are the components of ECRI's leading indexes?
- Why didn't the WLI signal recession in 2010?