Reports & Indexes
ECRI leading indexes turn before the economy does, allowing us to presage business cycle inflection points well before the consensus. We closely monitor over 100 proprietary cyclical indexes, and our written reports for professional members deliver in-depth, nuanced analyses of shifting risks in economic growth and inflation worldwide.
We publicly release the latest data on two leading indexes of growth and inflation that are presented in this basic U.S. economic dashboard.
- The U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of economic activity is available every Friday.
- The U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (FIG) is a monthly leading index of inflation.
Check on these two indexes every Friday: The FIG shows how hot the economy is running; the WLI tells you if it's about to race ahead or stall. If either plunges or rises convincingly, it signals a shift in the risk of a turning point.
LAGGING INDEXES (GROWTH RATES, %)
About ECRI Reports
Expert analysis of evolving cyclical outlook.
ECRI is perhaps the only organisation to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm.
[T]he Economic Cycle Research Institute [is] a private forecasting group with an excellent track record.
(ECRI’s) forecast of the [Great] recession helped us anticipate reduced merchandise sales; we proactively revised our inventory forecasts down months ago, and that has helped to greatly minimize the inventory swell and need for markdowns.
For ourselves, in this cycle, we'll line up with ECRI.
No one speaks with more authority about the economy's turning points.
Over the last 15 years, [ECRI] has gotten all of its recession calls right, while issuing no false alarms.
- How often are indexes updated?
- When does ECRI release its latest data and reports?
- What information do members get that the public doesn't?
- How do I read the Weekly Leading Index (WLI) and Future Inflation Gauge (FIG) "dials" shown on the public Reports and Indexes page?
- Why does ECRI say we are in an era of more frequent recessions?
- What are the components of ECRI's leading indexes?
- Why didn't the WLI signal recession in 2010?