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Reports & Indexes

 

We help our clients manage their exposure to cycle risk. ECRI has been studying economic cycles – and forecasting recessions and recoveries – longer and more reliably than anyone, anywhere. We do this by making sense of the often-confusing big picture through unique cyclical insights based on more than 100 proprietary indexes covering 22 countries.

ECRI leading indexes turn before the economy does, allowing us to see the signs of economic cycle inflection points well before the consensus. We closely monitor our large array of proprietary cyclical indexes, and provide written reports and consultation to clients, delivering in-depth, nuanced analyses of shifting risk in economic growth and inflation worldwide.

As a public service, and as an example of our work, ECRI publicly releases limited data on one of our leading indexes:

  • The U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of economic activity is available every Friday after it has been shared with clients.
  • The U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (FIG) is a monthly leading index of inflation.

Cycle Dashboard

Check on these two indexes every Friday: The FIG shows how hot the economy is running; the WLI tells you if it's about to race ahead or stall. If either plunges or rises convincingly, it signals a shift in the risk of a turning point.

WEEKLY INDEXES(GROWTH RATES,%)
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) is a composite leading index that anticipates cyclical turning points in U.S. economic activity by 2-3 quarters. Cycles in economic activity are captured by our U.S. Weekly Coincident Index (USWCI), which is a comprehensive measure of the economy's current state, tracking indicators of production, employment, income, and sales.
MONTHLY LEADING, COINCIDENT AND
LAGGING INDEXES (GROWTH RATES, %)
These indexes summarize leading indicators that turn before the U.S. economy does (monthly version of the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, top line), coincident indicators that turn in step with it (U.S. Coincident Index, middle line) and lagging indicators that turn after the economy does (U.S. Lagging Index, bottom line).

About ECRI Reports

About ECRI Reports

Expert analysis of evolving cyclical outlook.

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Testimonial

In March [2009], the month the market scraped bottom, ECRI went forth with [a] tablepounding historical observation-. The implication could not have been clearer that a market rally, when it started, would be no sucker's affair but the real McCoy.
- Grant's Interest Rate Observer
As an investment strategist, I need to navigate the many twists and turns in the emerging economic landscape with as much foresight as possible to know when to take or avoid risk. In this quest, ECRI's array of leading indices, specifically designed to predict and navigate economic turning points, have been an indispensible tool.
- ECRI Client
Nothing in the world compares with ECRI's insights into the business cycle. Those insights form a key part of our strategic and tactical management of asset class allocations. We have never been disappointed in following what ECRI's indicators suggest is likely to occur next.
- ECRI Client
ECRI [is] the most accurate forecasting institution in the world.
- Sydney Morning Herald
ECRI has had a very stellar record. They've been making pretty bold calls and going against the conventional wisdom. So far their record has been one of the most impressive, and has been written up in the press as well as talked about in policy circles.
- IMF
Over the last 15 years, [ECRI] has gotten all of its recession calls right, while issuing no false alarms. Oct. 2011
- The New York Times