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Reports & Indexes

 

We help our clients manage their exposure to cycle risk. ECRI has been studying economic cycles – and forecasting recessions and recoveries – longer and more reliably than anyone, anywhere. We do this by making sense of the often-confusing big picture through unique cyclical insights based on more than 100 proprietary indexes covering 22 countries.

ECRI leading indexes turn before the economy does, allowing us to see the signs of economic cycle inflection points well before the consensus. We closely monitor our large array of proprietary cyclical indexes, and provide written reports and consultation to clients, delivering in-depth, nuanced analyses of shifting risk in economic growth and inflation worldwide.

As a public service, and as an example of our work, ECRI publicly releases limited data on one of our leading indexes:

  • The U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of economic activity is available every Friday after it has been shared with clients.
  • The U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (FIG) is a monthly leading index of inflation.

Cycle Dashboard

Check on these two indexes every Friday: The FIG shows how hot the economy is running; the WLI tells you if it's about to race ahead or stall. If either plunges or rises convincingly, it signals a shift in the risk of a turning point.

WEEKLY INDEXES(GROWTH RATES,%)
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) is a composite leading index that anticipates cyclical turning points in U.S. economic activity by 2-3 quarters. Cycles in economic activity are captured by our U.S. Weekly Coincident Index (USWCI), which is a comprehensive measure of the economy's current state, tracking indicators of production, employment, income, and sales.
MONTHLY LEADING, COINCIDENT AND
LAGGING INDEXES (GROWTH RATES, %)
These indexes summarize leading indicators that turn before the U.S. economy does (monthly version of the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, top line), coincident indicators that turn in step with it (U.S. Coincident Index, middle line) and lagging indicators that turn after the economy does (U.S. Lagging Index, bottom line).

About ECRI Reports

About ECRI Reports

Expert analysis of evolving cyclical outlook.

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Testimonial

I have to pay attention to those people and indicators that have pointed in the right direction - even when they've gone against the crowd (and my opinion at the time). One such outfit is the Economic Cycle Research Institute, whose various leading indicators actually have done just that - lead where things were headed.
- Randall Forsyth, Barron's
ECRI has had a very stellar record. They've been making pretty bold calls and going against the conventional wisdom. So far their record has been one of the most impressive, and has been written up in the press as well as talked about in policy circles.
- IMF
(ECRI's) forecast of the [Great] recession helped us anticipate reduced merchandise sales; we proactively revised our inventory forecasts down months ago, and that has helped to greatly minimize the inventory swell and need for markdowns.
- Fortune 100 Company
[T]he Economic Cycle Research Institute [is] a private forecasting group with an excellent track record.
- The New York Times
...a unique set of insights that made me able to cut through a lot of the noise in the market place... the tools ECRI provide in calling decelerating (or accelerating) growth is unmatched.
- ECRI Client
This approach works like a charm.
- Forbes Magazine