A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

ECRI uses a highly nuanced “many-cycles” view to understand the complex dynamics of the global economy.
To monitor the U.S. economy alone, we use an array of more than a dozen specialized leading indexes in the context of the ECRI framework for incorporating various sectors and aspects of the economy.
The ECRI framework covers 21 economies, incorporating well over 100 proprietary indexes designed to be comparable across borders.

About ECRI Reports

ECRI's analysis of pivotal shifts in the business cycle allows our members a critical advantage.

Costly business and trading mistakes are made when a cyclical turning point isn't detected. By contrast, ECRI delivers accurate warning of economic and inflation cycle turning points for major developed and developing economies.

Members receive the reports listed below, which offer in-depth analysis covering 21 economies accounting for 80% of world GDP — vital information needed to decipher the complex dynamics of the global economy.

Essentials

Critical insights from the ongoing story told by the objective ECRI framework as it relates to current events, including emerging opportunities and threats.

U.S. Cyclical Outlook
International Cyclical Outlook

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Focus

In-depth research on diverse topics from a unique cyclical perspective, including new research advances, major cyclical calls and urgent contemporary concerns.

U.S. Cyclical Outlook
International Cyclical Outlook

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ECRI Weekly Update

On Friday mornings we call out key issues and provide brief updates to ECRI's outlook, including:

Advance updates of select indexes, including global aggregates and international Future Inflation Gauges

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Index Pages

A crisp synopsis, including charts and data update details for ECRI's leading and coincident indexes.

U.S. Index Pages (includes sector coverage)
International Country Pages (includes country coverage)

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Download all sample ECRI report excerpts

Contact ECRI

Email

pro@businesscycle.com

Phone

New York: + 1 (212) 557-7788
London: + 44 (207) 060-1223

Contact ECRI Online

ECRI Services

The clarity and conviction to break from the crowd at the right time.

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FAQ

Testimonial

ECRI has had a very stellar record. They've been making pretty bold calls and going against the conventional wisdom. So far their record has been one of the most impressive, and has been written up in the press as well as talked about in policy circles.

- IMF

"eerily accurate"

- National Public Radio

Over the last 15 years, [ECRI] has gotten all of its recession calls right, while issuing no false alarms. Oct. 2011

- The New York Times

"penetrating analysis"

- The New York Times

(ECRI's) forecast of the [Great] recession helped us anticipate reduced merchandise sales; we proactively revised our inventory forecasts down months ago, and that has helped to greatly minimize the inventory swell and need for markdowns.

- Fortune 100 Company

ECRI can justify a certain smugness now that business cycles are back in fashion. The institute called the last two recessions and the current recovery months ahead of the pack.

- Harvard Business Review

Our Track Record

Highlights of ECRI's calls.

View the Timeline