About ECRI Reports

ECRI's pinpoint analysis of pivotal shifts in the business cycle allows our members a critical advantage.

Costly business and trading mistakes are made when a coming recession isn't detected, a period of slowing growth is misinterpreted as a recession, or a recovery isn't recognized.

By contrast, ECRI delivers accurate advance warning of coming economic and inflation cycle turning points for major developed and developing economies.

Members receive the comprehensive reports listed below, which offer in-depth analysis for major sectors of 21 economies accounting for 80% of world GDP - all of the information needed to accurately decipher the complex dynamics of the global economy.

International Cyclical Outlook (ICO) - monthly

Unlike conventional leading indexes, ECRI's international indexes are comparable across borders and typically provide longer leads. The ICO report presents not only comprehensive analysis of our international long leading indexes and future inflation gauges, but also specialized indicators ranging from the Chinese Leading Home Price Index to the U.K. Leading Services Index.

Clear insights

  • Offers protection from being blindsided by cyclical turns around the world.
  • Highlights opportunities — ahead of the consensus — as cyclical risks shift.
  • Focus sections present in-depth cyclical research on a variety of international topics.

Global, Regional & Country Coverage

  • 21 countries covering 80% of world GDP, including China, India, Brazil, Russia and South Africa.
  • Indexes are also aggregated globally and regionally.
  • International index data starts in the 1950s.

U.S. Cyclical Outlook (USCO) - monthly

ECRI's WLI is but one of a vast array of leading indexes to forecast turning points in the various sectors and aspects of the economy. Based on over a dozen leading indexes, the USCO report presents in-depth, nuanced analysis of U.S. economic cycle dynamics.

State-of-the-Art Forecasting Tools

Economic Growth

ECRI's U.S. Long Leading Index, which has longer leads than stock prices, provides the earliest signal of upcoming turning points in the economy. Separately, specialized leading indexes are used to forecast cycles in key sectors of the economy:

  • Long Leading Index
  • Weekly Leading Index
  • Short Leading Index
  • Leading Services Index
  • Leading Financial Services Index
  • Leading Non-Financial Services Index
  • Leading Manufacturing Index
  • Leading Construction Index
  • Leading Diffusion Index
  • Leading Exports Index
  • Leading Imports Index
  • Leading Trade Balance Index

Inflation

Inflation cycles are loosely related to, but distinct from, cycles in economic growth and employment. We use specialized leading indexes to monitor this aspect of the economy:

Employment

Because cycles in employment can delink from the overall economy, we have long used specialized leading indexes to forecast cycles in aggregate employment:

  • Leading Employment Index
  • Leading Manufacturing Employment Index
  • Leading Non-Manufacturing Employment Index

Focus Sections

Present unique cyclical insights on a variety of topics ranging from markets and structural developments, to policy implications.

ECRI Weekly Update

Each Friday morning, this report promptly informs members of shifts in ECRI's outlook, including:

  • Advance updates of our Weekly Leading and Coincident Indexes
  • Advance updates for all Future Inflation Gauges
  • Exclusive updates to the U.S. Weekly Future Inflation Gauge

These updates serve as advance supplements to our monthly reports.

Contact us to become a member and start receiving ECRI reports, data and advisory services.

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Testimonial

No one speaks with more authority about the economy's turning points.
- Fortune Magazine
In March [2009], the month the market scraped bottom, ECRI went forth with [a] tablepounding historical observation… The implication could not have been clearer that a market rally, when it started, would be no sucker's affair but the real McCoy.
- Grant's Interest Rate Observer
As an investment strategist, I need to navigate the many twists and turns in the emerging economic landscape with as much foresight as possible to know when to take or avoid risk. In this quest, ECRI’s array of leading indices, specifically designed to predict and navigate economic turning points, have been an indispensible tool.
- ECRI Professional Member
Nothing in the world compares with ECRI’s insights into the business cycle. Those insights form a key part of our strategic and tactical management of asset class allocations. We have never been disappointed in following what ECRI’s indicators suggest is likely to occur next.
- ECRI Professional Member
In the opinion littered world of economic forecasting, ECRI is Mr. Spock – deeply analytical, dispassionate, and accurate.
- ECRI Professional Member
ECRI has had a very stellar record. They've been making pretty bold calls and going against the conventional wisdom. So far their record has been one of the most impressive, and has been written up in the press as well as talked about in policy circles.
- IMF
           

Our Track Record

ECRI Services

Highlights of ECRI's calls.

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