News
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Sep 25 2019
Japan Recession Risk
While many countries around the world are fighting global trade headwinds, it’s much worse for Japan. More
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Sep 24 2019
Cyclical Upturn in India
From a cyclical perspective India is looking better, with ECRI’s leading indexes showing a trough in the current slowdown. More
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Sep 23 2019
Industrial Slowdown Grips China and the U.S.
Despite the ups and downs of trade talks, the global industrial growth continues with knock-on effects for China and the U.S. More
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Sep 01 2019
Central Bank Failures and Recession Risks
Updates to ECRI’s U.S. and China slowdown calls, and monetary policy dilemmas in the context of Grand Experiments launched post-GFC. More
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Aug 30 2019
Surveillance Podcast: Global Slowdown and Trade War
ECRI's Achuthan joins Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast to discuss global slowdown and U.S.-China trade war. More
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Aug 30 2019
China’s “Rust Belt” Problem
The Chinese cyclical slowdown continues, as they shore up their “rust belt.” More
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Jul 17 2019
Interview: Using Data to Answer the Recession Question
Highlights of Real Vision discussion on our 2018 downturn call and updated public outlook. More
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Jul 01 2019
Notes from Spain
Fast fashion is the new model for all sorts of trade under deglobalisation. More
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Jun 10 2019
U.S. Inflation Cycle and More China Stimulus
ECRI’s Achuthan spoke with Bloomberg Daybreak Asia about ECRI’s inflation cycle research, how global slowing preceded the trade war, and why more Chinese stimulus is likely. More
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May 31 2019
Podcast: the “Late Cycle” Myth & More
ECRI’s Achuthan joined MacroVoices to discuss how “late cycle” analysis falls short and where we are in the current business and inflation cycles (two different things). More
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Mar 30 2019
Full RV Interview: ECRI Slowdown Call, Process & Current Outlook
30-minute interview on ECRI’s 2018 slowdown call, our process, and updates to our outlook. More
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Mar 26 2019
The Telegraph
Don't Get Greedy and Don't Try to Time The Top of This Tired 10-year Bull Market
If semiconductor sales are the canary in the coal mine for the world economy, be careful. More
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Mar 20 2019
Interview: Cycling Into Slowdown
Highlights of Real Vision discussion on our 2018 slowdown call, the ECRI process, ECRI insights, and updates to the outlook. More
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Mar 16 2019
The Canary in the Semiconductor-chip Fab
ECRI’s leading indexes, which anticipate turning points in semiconductor shipment growth, clearly predicted this collapse. More
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Mar 06 2019
„Wir leihen uns das Wachstum“
Der Brexit und Trumps Handelskonflikt beeinflussen die Wirtschaft deutlich weniger als gemeinhin angenommen. More
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Feb 26 2019
Trump & Xi Trade, China Outlook, Fed
ECRI's Achuthan joins Bloomberg TV to discuss our high conviction, contrarian views, Brexit, trade tensions and the prospect of hitting Trump’s growth targets. More
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Jan 28 2019
Turning Points in Global Growth & Market Risk
Global economic growth continues to slow, as ECRI correctly called a year ago, but no recession imminent. More
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Dec 31 2018
2018 Cycle Calls
ECRI’s 2018 real-time track record and a look at what comes next. More
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Dec 19 2018
RBI’s MPC Minutes and ECRI
Growth in the Indian Leading Index, a predictor of the direction of Indian economic growth maintained by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), New York, has risen lately. More
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Dec 18 2018
The Telegraph
Credit Markets Signal Recession in Early 2019
“Fed policy is too tight given that inflation peaked in July. They overstayed their welcome.” More
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