News
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Aug 29 2019
Inflation Cycle, The Fed and Recession Risks
ECRI's Achuthan joined CNBC's 'The Exchange' to discuss the inflation cycle, Fed and recession risks. More
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Aug 14 2019
Recession Risk, Rate Cuts and the Future Inflation Gauge
Recession risk is determined not by when the Fed stops rate hikes, but by when it starts a rate cut cycle. More
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Jul 31 2019
The Elephant in the Room Forcing the Fed Rate Cut
The inflation cycle downturn leaves the Fed with no option but to cut rates. More
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Jul 16 2019
China and G7 Inflation
ECRI spoke with Bloomberg Daybreak Asia, about global industrial growth, inflation and China’s stimulus. More
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Jun 07 2019
Inflation, the Fed and the FIG
The Fed and the bond market have both been way behind the curve in anticipating the inflation cycle downturn. ECRI’s U.S. Future Inflation Gauge was far more prescient. More
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May 31 2019
Interview: Disinflation is the Elephant in the Room
ECRI’s Achuthan joined Yahoo Finance to discuss the drop in yields and more. More
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Dec 13 2018
What the Fed is Getting Wrong
The Fed and many market participants don’t really understand that inflation is cyclical. More
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Dec 13 2018
Inflation Cycles Down as Fed Stays Starstruck
Oblivious of the ongoing inflation cycle downturn, the Fed is still navigating “by the stars.” More
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Dec 12 2018
Inflation is Cyclical
ECRI joins CNBC to discuss how most don’t understand that inflation is cyclical, and how that impacts the debate around Fed rate hike expectations. More
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Oct 27 2018
Why Trump May Be Right About the Fed
“The biggest risk is the Fed,” President Trump charged again last week. Meanwhile, ECRI analysis points “It’s a full-blown downturn, pointing to a further decline in inflation pressures.” More
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Oct 16 2018
ECRI’s Inflation Downturn Call
Achuthan joined Grant’s podcast to discuss ECRI’s cyclical worldview on inflation, home prices, EM and more. More
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Oct 15 2018
Worst Home Price Outlook Since 2009
A home price downturn is much more than a possible risk. More
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Nov 15 2017
Inflation Cycle Locked Into Downturn
ECRI was warning of the inflation downturn when the Fed was celebrating its midyear 'Mission Accomplished' moment. More
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Sep 20 2017
Cyclical Forces Pressuring the Fed
ECRI's Achuthan speaks with CNBC about how monetary policy is impacted by cycles in inflation and growth. More
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Sep 08 2017
Jan '17 Flashback: Bond Bears Will Be Blindsided
Last January, ECRI warned that cyclical forces would blindside those betting on the end of the 35-year bond bull market. More
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Sep 01 2017
U.S. FIG Ticks Up
The U.S. Future Inflation Gauge is still well below last fall's cyclical peak. More
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Aug 04 2017
Interview: Jobs, Inflation & the Fed
Central banks like the Fed are misled by their belief that a lower jobless rate equals higher inflation. More
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Aug 04 2017
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Dips
The USFIG dips in July, further distancing itself from last fall's cyclical peak. More
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Jul 31 2017
Phillips Curveball
It is the U.S. Future Inflation Gauge, "not the Phillips curve", that provides early warning of an inflation upturn. More
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Jul 18 2017
All Signs Point to a Cyclical Slowdown in Inflation
Even as central bankers get more hawkish, the data show there's a change underway that the Fed is likely to miss. More
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