News
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Jul 05 2019
The Myth of the Tight U.S. Labor Market
Jobs growth is substantially slower than the headline employment data indicate. More
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Jul 01 2019
Notes from Spain
Fast fashion is the new model for all sorts of trade under deglobalisation. More
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Jun 28 2019
De-Globalization Diagnosis Predated Trade War
De-globalization has been happening for much of this decade, as its roots run much deeper than the trade war. So, while a resolution to trade disputes would be welcome, de-globalization will continue. More
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Jun 15 2019
Should the Fed Cut Rates in June?
ECRI’s research suggests the Fed should have begun a rate cut cycle last September. More
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Jun 10 2019
U.S. Inflation Cycle and More China Stimulus
ECRI’s Achuthan spoke with Bloomberg Daybreak Asia about ECRI’s inflation cycle research, how global slowing preceded the trade war, and why more Chinese stimulus is likely. More
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Jun 07 2019
Inflation, the Fed and the FIG
The Fed and the bond market have both been way behind the curve in anticipating the inflation cycle downturn. ECRI’s U.S. Future Inflation Gauge was far more prescient. More
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May 31 2019
Podcast: the “Late Cycle” Myth & More
ECRI’s Achuthan joined MacroVoices to discuss how “late cycle” analysis falls short and where we are in the current business and inflation cycles (two different things). More
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May 31 2019
Interview: Disinflation is the Elephant in the Room
ECRI’s Achuthan joined Yahoo Finance to discuss the drop in yields and more. More
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May 20 2019
Business Cycle’s Demise Greatly Exaggerated
Business cycles remain part and parcel of every market-oriented economy. More
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Apr 26 2019
Industrial Commodities and the Canadian Loonie
ECRI’s Achuthan discusses global growth prospects, commodity price inflation and the Canadian loonie. More
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Apr 25 2019
Market Optimism and the Hard Data
ECRI's Achuthan joins CNBC to discuss the U.S. slowdown and how the hard economic data shows slowing growth. More
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Apr 18 2019
Levy Economics Institute
Probing Powell’s Patience
ECRI presentation slides discuss the Fed’s review of its monetary policy approach in the context of Powell’s view of the Greenspan Fed. More
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Mar 30 2019
Full RV Interview: ECRI Slowdown Call, Process & Current Outlook
30-minute interview on ECRI’s 2018 slowdown call, our process, and updates to our outlook. More
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Mar 27 2019
GDP Data Tells You Nothing About Recession Risk
GDP data can be very misleading around cycle turning points – especially in the lead-up to recession. More
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Mar 26 2019
The Telegraph
Don't Get Greedy and Don't Try to Time The Top of This Tired 10-year Bull Market
If semiconductor sales are the canary in the coal mine for the world economy, be careful. More
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Mar 20 2019
Interview: Cycling Into Slowdown
Highlights of Real Vision discussion on our 2018 slowdown call, the ECRI process, ECRI insights, and updates to the outlook. More
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Mar 16 2019
The Canary in the Semiconductor-chip Fab
ECRI’s leading indexes, which anticipate turning points in semiconductor shipment growth, clearly predicted this collapse. More
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Mar 11 2019
Recession or Not, It's Out of Trump's Hands
During a speech at CPAC last week, President Trump blamed a strong U.S. dollar and interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve for hurting the economy. More
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Mar 06 2019
„Wir leihen uns das Wachstum“
Der Brexit und Trumps Handelskonflikt beeinflussen die Wirtschaft deutlich weniger als gemeinhin angenommen. More
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Feb 26 2019
Trump & Xi Trade, China Outlook, Fed
ECRI's Achuthan joins Bloomberg TV to discuss our high conviction, contrarian views, Brexit, trade tensions and the prospect of hitting Trump’s growth targets. More
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