News
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Feb 02 2018
Up is Down: Jump in AHE Growth Confirms Economic Slowdown
January wage growth jumped for an unwelcome reason: growth in hours fell faster than pay growth. More
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Jan 25 2018
Trump's Tax Cuts Won't Offset the Impending Slowdown
Everyone's too optimistic about 2018. More
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Jan 22 2018
Cyclical Outlook Diverges from Headlines
Our research shows most are looking the wrong way on economic growth. More
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Jan 19 2018
Weekly Leading Index Rises
Latest U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate increases. More
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Jan 05 2018
Jobs Report and 2018 Slowdown
Reuters interview discussing the Dec. jobs report, as well as ECRI's view on cycles in economic growth, including a U.S. slowdown in 2018. More
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Jan 05 2018
Weekly Leading Index Ticks Up
Today's U.S. Weekly Leading Index update showed its growth rate virtually unchanged. More
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Dec 13 2017
Tell-Tale Spreads Confirm Slowdown Ahead
The bond market, like ECRI's leading indexes, sees an impending slowdown. More
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Dec 08 2017
Jobs, Bonds and the Economy
ECRI's Achuthan talks with Reuters' "Trading at Noon" about the jobs report. More
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Dec 08 2017
Weekly Leading Index Rises
Latest U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate edges up. More
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Dec 07 2017
Tax Cuts May Hit Economy as it Slows
ECRI's forward-looking indicators point to "a slowdown that most don't see coming." More
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Dec 01 2017
Weekly Leading Index Ticks Up
Latest U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate virtually unchanged. More
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Nov 22 2017
China Data Disappoints, As ECRI Expected
Markets were disappointed by Chinese data this week, but ECRI's September reporting warned of this very outcome. More
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Nov 22 2017
Weekly Leading Index Increases
U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth ticks down. More
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Nov 17 2017
Weekly Leading Index Ticks Down
U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth eases. More
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Nov 15 2017
Inflation Cycle Locked Into Downturn
ECRI was warning of the inflation downturn when the Fed was celebrating its midyear 'Mission Accomplished' moment. More
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Nov 13 2017
As China Takes Center Stage In The World, It May Be Time To Buy
China's share of global GDP is growing while the United States' share of global purchasing power has been declining. More
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Nov 10 2017
Weekly Leading Index Slips
U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth virtually unchanged. More
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Nov 08 2017
Why So Many (in the West) Are Pissed Off
Is what ails the U.S. someone else's fault? History says no. More
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Nov 06 2017
Nowcasts and Consensus Forecasts
Are they useful? Not at turning points. More
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Nov 03 2017
Wage Inflation Puzzle on Full Display
We're approaching generational lows in unemployment, yet wage inflation is falling. More
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