News
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Jan 16 2020
Upside for Industrial Commodity Inflation
Cyclical upturn in industrial commodity inflation. More
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Jan 13 2020
Interview on Jobs and Markets
Growth in total hours worked has slowed to its weakest reading since 2010. More
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Dec 31 2019
Understanding Cycles
RealVision discussion on ECRI’s process and updates to the public outlook. More
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Dec 24 2019
2019 Private Cycle Calls in Review
See how the year unfolded for our clients, who were prepared for a continued global growth slowdown, no upturn in U.S. growth and inflation, and the Fed’s collision with the economic cycle. More
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Dec 20 2019
2019 Public Calls in Review
2019 saw a continued global growth slowdown, no upturn in U.S. growth and inflation, and a complete capitulation by the Fed. More
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Dec 13 2019
What Makes ECRI Different and Our Updated Public Outlook
RealVision interview on the ECRI process and updates to our public outlook. More
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Nov 19 2019
Hard Data Decelerating
Hopes of reacceleration predicated on market optimism, but little objective evidence in hard data to support that view. More
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Nov 14 2019
Forecast to Fact: Green Shoots in the Eurozone
Unbeknownst to virtually all, a growth rate cycle upturn was set to take hold in early summer 2019. More
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Nov 11 2019
Forward-Looking Data Up, ECRI Says
Prospects of a global industrial growth upturn. More
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Nov 11 2019
Eurozone Growth Upturn
Interview on ECRI’s early summer call that Eurozone growth would turn up, and how that relates to the prospect of a global industrial growth upturn. More
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Oct 24 2019
Don't Blame Global Slowdown on Trade War
Many are misunderstanding the primary cause of the current global slowdown, which means that they'll also miss what's coming next. More
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Oct 09 2019
Consumer Spending Growth Slowing
The downturn in consumer spending growth fits with the jobs growth slowdown. More
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Oct 02 2019
ISM Mfg, Jobs & Consumer
ISM Mfg at worst reading since June 2009 underscores that the slowdown ECRI predicted long ago is worse than analysts expected. More
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Sep 27 2019
Eurozone Looking Better
People are convinced that the Eurozone is going into recession, but our work reveals that’s too pessimistic because it’s too simplistic. More
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Sep 25 2019
Japan Recession Risk
While many countries around the world are fighting global trade headwinds, it’s much worse for Japan. More
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Sep 24 2019
Cyclical Upturn in India
From a cyclical perspective India is looking better, with ECRI’s leading indexes showing a trough in the current slowdown. More
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Sep 24 2019
The U.S. Jobs Slowdown is Important
U.S. jobs growth, already at an 8-year low, will keep falling, undermining consumer spending. More
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Sep 23 2019
Industrial Slowdown Grips China and the U.S.
Despite the ups and downs of trade talks, the global industrial growth continues with knock-on effects for China and the U.S. More
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Sep 23 2019
The US Economy Isn't In The Clear. A Recession is Still on The Table
The stock market is once again nearing record highs amid investor hopes that a recession is off the table — at least for now. More
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Sep 13 2019
An Upturn In India’s Growth Cycle Is In The Offing
The ECRI’s forward-looking leading indicators on India’s economic cycle tell us that there is a bottoming-out of growth that is in the offing. More
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