News
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Jul 17 2019
Interview: Using Data to Answer the Recession Question
Highlights of Real Vision discussion on our 2018 downturn call and updated public outlook. More
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Jul 16 2019
China and G7 Inflation
ECRI spoke with Bloomberg Daybreak Asia, about global industrial growth, inflation and China’s stimulus. More
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Jul 12 2019
Weekly Leading Index Increases
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rises to -1.2%. More
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Jul 11 2019
Earning Growth Outlook Plunges
Earnings growth is highly sensitive to cycles in economic growth, so every cyclical slowdown sees a plunge in earnings growth. More
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Jul 08 2019
Interview: What will the Fed do?
"Elephant in the room" remains the inflation cycle downturn. More
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Jul 08 2019
Monthly Jobs Surveys May Overshoot Gains
Lakshman Achuthan joined Bloomberg Radio to discuss ECRI's latest opinion piece. More
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Jul 06 2019
US-China Feud Is Accelerating The Biggest Shift In Trade Since The Cold War, Away From Globalisation
Trend described as ‘deglobalisation’ and ‘balkanisation’ is leading to shorter supply chains as companies try to keep up with more sophisticated consumer demand. More
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Jul 05 2019
Great Headlines Mislead On Jobs
The headlines paint an overly rosy picture of the state of the labor market, after having exaggerated last year’s job growth. More
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Jul 05 2019
The Myth of the Tight U.S. Labor Market
Jobs growth is substantially slower than the headline employment data indicate. More
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Jul 05 2019
Weekly Leading Index Rises
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth increases to -1.9%. More
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Jul 01 2019
Notes from Spain
Fast fashion is the new model for all sorts of trade under deglobalisation. More
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Jun 28 2019
De-Globalization Diagnosis Predated Trade War
De-globalization has been happening for much of this decade, as its roots run much deeper than the trade war. So, while a resolution to trade disputes would be welcome, de-globalization will continue. More
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Jun 28 2019
Weekly Leading Index Ticks Down
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth edges down to -2.4%. More
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Jun 15 2019
Should the Fed Cut Rates in June?
ECRI’s research suggests the Fed should have begun a rate cut cycle last September. More
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Jun 14 2019
Weekly Leading Index Edges Up
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth decreases to -1.9%. More
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Jun 10 2019
U.S. Inflation Cycle and More China Stimulus
ECRI’s Achuthan spoke with Bloomberg Daybreak Asia about ECRI’s inflation cycle research, how global slowing preceded the trade war, and why more Chinese stimulus is likely. More
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Jun 07 2019
Inflation, the Fed and the FIG
The Fed and the bond market have both been way behind the curve in anticipating the inflation cycle downturn. ECRI’s U.S. Future Inflation Gauge was far more prescient. More
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Jun 07 2019
Weekly Leading Index Decreases
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index decreases as its growth falls to -1.3%. More
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May 31 2019
Podcast: the “Late Cycle” Myth & More
ECRI’s Achuthan joined MacroVoices to discuss how “late cycle” analysis falls short and where we are in the current business and inflation cycles (two different things). More
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May 31 2019
Weekly Leading Index Slips
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index slips as its growth edges down to -0.3%. More
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