News
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Jun 03 2020
Market’s Make Or Break Moment In One Chart
Drawing parallels to the opposing 2001 and 2009 recoveries. More
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May 29 2020
Weekly Leading Index Increases
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate rises further to -25.1%. More
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May 27 2020
The Stock Market and Consumer Sentiment Are Telling Different Stories
Stocks have rebounded off March lows, while sentiment is near the lowest level in nearly a decade. More
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May 14 2020
Recession, Recovery, Demand Destruction and Cyclical Risks
Interview on recession, recovery, demand destruction, cyclical risks and what happens next. More
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May 14 2020
Cyclical Risks and Contrarian Calls (Radio Interview)
Discussing the outlook, cyclical risks and contrarian calls. More
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May 11 2020
The Business Cycle Basics of this Recession
Understanding the depth, diffusion and duration of this downturn. More
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May 08 2020
Podcast: The Recession in Context, and the Coming Recovery
ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan shares what cycle research insights tell us about the covid-19 recession, and what’s likely to come next. More
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May 08 2020
Fastest Job Loss Ever
Eventually, the hemorrhaging of jobs will be stanched, and employment will start rising. But even that would be far from enough for things to start feeling better. More
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Apr 23 2020
The Three D’s and High-Frequency Leading Indicators
We measure recessions with the Three D’s: depth, diffusion and duration. Here’s what we are watching for signs of recovery. More
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Apr 22 2020
Interview: Three D's and High-Frequency Data
ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan discusses the three D’s: depth, diffusion and duration. More
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Apr 14 2020
Radio Interview on Recession (in German)
A discussion on recession, recovery and long-term impacts of the pandemic. More
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Apr 04 2020
A Nasty, Short and Bitter Recession
While we all appreciate the urgency of reopening the economy, saving lives is a precondition for saving livelihoods. More
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Mar 17 2020
Fed's Latest Rate Cut Was a Useless and Desperate Move
Cascading closures across the economy will necessarily cause a breakdown in demand. More
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Mar 12 2020
School Closures Are Starting, And They’ll Have Far-Reaching Economic Impacts
School closures might hurt the economy, but keeping them open could make things worse. More
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Mar 06 2020
The Fed's Emergency Rate Cut Was A Big Mistake
Our research shows that the US economy came into this epidemic in more resilient cyclical shape than most realize. More
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Mar 05 2020
Impact of Mass School Closings
Discussion on how mass school closings would effect the economy if they come to pass. More
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Feb 21 2020
A Predictable Pratfall
Yet again, ECRI’s Japanese Leading Index correctly flags a recession, in this case well ahead of the tax hike and coronavirus concerns. More
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Jan 28 2020
Coronavirus Impact on Commodity Price Outlook
Industrial commodity price inflation, which had been pretty beaten down, started a cyclical upturn some months ago. More
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Jan 22 2020
Hard Data Defies Confident Consensus
Weakening sales trends and wage growth underscore a sustained slowdown in spending. More
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Jan 16 2020
Global Industrial Growth Supports Commodities
Industrial commodity price inflation, which is still pretty beaten down, is starting a cyclical upturn on the back of better global industrial growth. More
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