News
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Jul 01 2016
U.S. Weekly Leading Index Unchanged
U.S. WLI remains unchanged at 136.4, while the growth rate ticked up to 7.2%. More
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Jun 30 2016
Cyclical Misconceptions Driving Policy Errors
Policies rooted in overly optimistic assumptions about trend growth and mistaken notions about business cycle dynamics are key to the "productivity puzzle." More
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Jun 30 2016
A Sober Economy Can Handle the Brexit Hit
One of the main signs of the health of the global and U.S. economies is its ability to absorb a blow, and shake it off. More
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Jun 29 2016
Weak Business Investment No Surprise, Preceded Brexit
The Fed, counting on investment growth to bolster the economy, has been disappointed, undercutting any "rate hike cycle" plans. More
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Jun 24 2016
U.S. Weekly Leading Index Ticked Down
U.S. WLI ticked down to 136.4, while the growth rate little changed at 7.1%. More
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Jun 21 2016
U.S. Coincident Index Ticks Up
Despite an uptick in coincident data, the year-and-a-half old cyclical downturn in economic growth continues. More
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Jun 17 2016
U.S. Weekly Leading Index Edged Down
U.S. WLI edged down to 136.5, while the growth rate increased to 7.1%. More
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Jun 17 2016
The Rate Hike Cycle that Wasn't
Before Yellen's recent press conference, our research showed that the Fed's next move may well be a rate cut. More
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Jun 14 2016
Economic Cycle and The Fed
Unless a growth rate cycle upturn begins to take shape, its next move may very well end up being a rate cut. More
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Jun 10 2016
U.S. Weekly Leading Index Increased
U.S. WLI increased to a 443-week high of 137.3, growth rate rose to 6.5%. More
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Jun 10 2016
Purple Squirrel Update
The difference between the number hired and the number of job openings is not just shrinking, but has plunged by almost minus three-quarters of a million jobs. More
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Jun 09 2016
"It's the economy, stupid!"
The Fed doesn't seem to realize that its rate hike plans are colliding with the economic cycle. More
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Jun 06 2016
U.S. WLI Monthly Unchanged
U.S. WLI monthly growth rate ticked down to 5.3%, the level remained unchanged at 133.8. More
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Jun 06 2016
More Than One Job to Make Ends Meet
Growth in multiple jobholders much faster than single jobholders. More
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Jun 03 2016
U.S. Weekly Leading Index Decreased
U.S. WLI decreased to 135.8, growth rate ticked down to 5.9%. More
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Jun 03 2016
More Wage Inflation Deception
"There is nothing more deceptive than an obvious fact." More
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Jun 03 2016
Future Inflation Gauge at 94-mo High
Despite slower growth, underlying inflation pressures are on the rise. More
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Jun 02 2016
Rate Hike "Cycle" Remains Unlikely
Cyclical slowdowns are more widespread globally than at any time in almost 3 years. More
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May 27 2016
U.S. Weekly Leading Index Increases
U.S. WLI increased to 136.1, growth rate edged up to 6.1%. More
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May 25 2016
Wage Erosion Resumes
Higher inflation eats away at real wage growth. More
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