News
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Jun 02 2016
Rate Hike "Cycle" Remains Unlikely
Cyclical slowdowns are more widespread globally than at any time in almost 3 years. More
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May 27 2016
U.S. Weekly Leading Index Increases
U.S. WLI increased to 136.1, growth rate edged up to 6.1%. More
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May 25 2016
Wage Erosion Resumes
Higher inflation eats away at real wage growth. More
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May 23 2016
U.S. Coincident Index Growth Rate Decreased
Year-over-year growth in ECRI's USCI decreased to 1.9%, a 28-month low. More
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May 20 2016
U.S. Weekly Leading Index Slips
U.S. WLI slipped to 134.5, growth rate ticked down to 5.3%. More
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May 18 2016
Growth Weighed Down by Inaction
"The litmus test for any policy is, what impact does it have to improve productivity or demographic growth?" More
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May 13 2016
U.S. Weekly Leading Index Ticks Down
U.S. WLI ticked down to 135.0, growth rate edged up to 5.7%. More
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May 12 2016
Export Engines Cut Out
We are seeing rampant export price deflation for advanced and emerging economies alike, but even this steep fall in prices has been unable to boost export volumes. More
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May 11 2016
Only Purple Squirrels Need Apply
With job openings at near-record highs, according to the JOLTS data, some see an extraordinarily tight labor market. More
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May 10 2016
U.S. WLI Monthly Rose
U.S. WLI (monthly data) rose to 133.3, growth rate increased to 4.8%. More
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May 09 2016
Job Growth Downturn Lines Up With GDP Growth Downturn
While economists scratch their heads about the apparent disconnect between GDP growth and job growth, the cyclical reality is that both peaked in early 2015 and remain in cyclical downtrends. More
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May 09 2016
Bloomberg Interview Summary
Stagflation "lite," as slower growth persists. More
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May 06 2016
U.S. Weekly Leading Index Up
U.S. WLI edged up to 135.7, growth rate rose to 5.4%. More
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May 06 2016
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge at 93-month High
The USFIG increased further in April to a 93-month high. More
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May 06 2016
Multiple jobs needed to make ends meet
Multiple jobholders growth much faster than single jobholders. More
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May 04 2016
PCBE
Where Are We in The Economic Cycle?
NABE Conference Slides with Notes More
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Apr 29 2016
U.S. Weekly Leading Index Ticks Up
U.S. WLI ticks up to 135.5, growth rate increases to 4.5%. More
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Apr 28 2016
Recession Fears Still Overblown
Talking with Simon Constable at Forbes about why there's a long way to go before calling a recession. More
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Apr 27 2016
U.S. Headed for 'Stagflation-Lite'
Speaking with Simon Constable at Forbes about why "stagflation-lite" is in our future. More
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Apr 26 2016
Stalling or Falling?
Gross Domestic Income has been below 2%, the Fed's estimated "stall speed," for ten of the last 14 quarters. More
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