News
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May 27 2016
U.S. Weekly Leading Index Increases
U.S. WLI increased to 136.1, growth rate edged up to 6.1%. More
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May 25 2016
Wage Erosion Resumes
Higher inflation eats away at real wage growth. More
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May 18 2016
Growth Weighed Down by Inaction
"The litmus test for any policy is, what impact does it have to improve productivity or demographic growth?" More
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May 12 2016
Export Engines Cut Out
We are seeing rampant export price deflation for advanced and emerging economies alike, but even this steep fall in prices has been unable to boost export volumes. More
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May 11 2016
Only Purple Squirrels Need Apply
With job openings at near-record highs, according to the JOLTS data, some see an extraordinarily tight labor market. More
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May 09 2016
Job Growth Downturn Lines Up With GDP Growth Downturn
While economists scratch their heads about the apparent disconnect between GDP growth and job growth, the cyclical reality is that both peaked in early 2015 and remain in cyclical downtrends. More
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May 09 2016
Bloomberg Interview Summary
Stagflation "lite," as slower growth persists. More
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May 06 2016
Multiple jobs needed to make ends meet
Multiple jobholders growth much faster than single jobholders. More
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May 04 2016
PCBE
Where Are We in The Economic Cycle?
NABE Conference Slides with Notes More
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Apr 28 2016
Recession Fears Still Overblown
Talking with Simon Constable at Forbes about why there's a long way to go before calling a recession. More
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Apr 27 2016
U.S. Headed for 'Stagflation-Lite'
Speaking with Simon Constable at Forbes about why "stagflation-lite" is in our future. More
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Apr 26 2016
Stalling or Falling?
Gross Domestic Income has been below 2%, the Fed's estimated "stall speed," for ten of the last 14 quarters. More
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Apr 22 2016
What The Fed Can Learn From Carl Sagan
Unfortunately, the Fed's policy making experts haven't got the goods to back up their claims. More
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Apr 15 2016
Flawed Assumptions and Grand Experiments
Minsky conference slides and audio. More
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Apr 13 2016
Fed Faces Stagflation Lite
With sluggish U.S. economic growth slowing further, and inflation on the rise, the Fed is faced with "stagflation lite." More
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Apr 07 2016
New Growth Rate Cycle Peak Date Determined for Japan
New Japanese growth rate cycle date. More
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Mar 16 2016
Interview on Fed and the Business Cycle
More often than not, turns in economic surprise indexes are false alarms, and false all-clear signals. More
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Mar 15 2016
Monetary Policy Parlor Tricks
Inexorable declines in NGDP growth have become more evident internationally. More
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Mar 01 2016
Simple Math Revisited
Potential U.S. GDP growth is converging to ¾% a year, identical to Japan's GDP growth over its "lost decades." More
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Feb 22 2016
Bloomberg Interview Highlights
14 minute clip of today's Bloomberg TV interview; discussing Fed's mandate, consensus expectations, and three grand economic experiments at risk of failing. More
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