News
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Sep 19 2016
Interview on Fed Models, and an Esoteric Long Leading Index
More detail on ECRI's growth rate cycles, and the global outlook. More
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Sep 16 2016
Cyclical Update
Growth, inflation and policy challenges. More
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Sep 12 2016
Cyclical Long-Term Slowdown In U.S. Growth But No Recession
Recall that in early 2016, when many were afraid of recession, ECRI declared that such fears were premature. More
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Sep 07 2016
The Brecession Blunder
Only now, with evidence mounting that such a recession hasn't materialized, is there puzzlement about the "Brecession blunder". More
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Sep 02 2016
Latest Jobs Data in Context
Slowdown continues amid weak global trade. More
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Aug 31 2016
Amid Structural Lowflation, World Exports Decline
As we first showed in early 2015, and expanded on this summer, trade continues to languish, with year-over-year global export volume growth slipping back below zero. More
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Jul 27 2016
Stagflation Lite Getting Harder to Ignore
ECRI's U.S. Coincident Index growth has been in a clear downtrend since the beginning of 2015. More
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Jul 20 2016
ECRI's Simple Math Goes Global
Weak demographics and productivity growth plague the G7, lowering trend economic growth, which makes cyclical slowdowns more risky. More
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Jul 13 2016
Interview: Cyclical Outlook vs. Structural Problems
Just because a U.S. recession isn't right at hand, doesn't mean it's off the table. More
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Jul 08 2016
Discussing Latest Jobs Data
Even with the strong jobs report, we still have a clear slowdown in yoy payroll job growth remains close to May's 27-month low. More
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Jun 30 2016
Cyclical Misconceptions Driving Policy Errors
Policies rooted in overly optimistic assumptions about trend growth and mistaken notions about business cycle dynamics are key to the "productivity puzzle." More
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Jun 30 2016
A Sober Economy Can Handle the Brexit Hit
One of the main signs of the health of the global and U.S. economies is its ability to absorb a blow, and shake it off. More
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Jun 29 2016
Weak Business Investment No Surprise, Preceded Brexit
The Fed, counting on investment growth to bolster the economy, has been disappointed, undercutting any "rate hike cycle" plans. More
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Jun 17 2016
The Rate Hike Cycle that Wasn't
Before Yellen's recent press conference, our research showed that the Fed's next move may well be a rate cut. More
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Jun 14 2016
Economic Cycle and The Fed
Unless a growth rate cycle upturn begins to take shape, its next move may very well end up being a rate cut. More
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Jun 10 2016
Purple Squirrel Update
The difference between the number hired and the number of job openings is not just shrinking, but has plunged by almost minus three-quarters of a million jobs. More
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Jun 09 2016
"It's the economy, stupid!"
The Fed doesn't seem to realize that its rate hike plans are colliding with the economic cycle. More
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Jun 06 2016
More Than One Job to Make Ends Meet
Growth in multiple jobholders much faster than single jobholders. More
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Jun 03 2016
More Wage Inflation Deception
"There is nothing more deceptive than an obvious fact." More
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Jun 02 2016
Rate Hike "Cycle" Remains Unlikely
Cyclical slowdowns are more widespread globally than at any time in almost 3 years. More
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