News
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Mar 31 2017
EM: From Ugly Ducklings to Swans
Emerging economies, whose prospects were widely panned, are now the market darlings. More
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Mar 16 2017
New Cycle Dates Determined for Russia and Australia
New Russian and Australian cycle dates. More
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Mar 15 2017
Fed Not Crying Wolf
In early 2017 many expected the Fed to, yet again, over-promise and under-deliver on rate hikes. ECRI warned otherwise. More
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Mar 10 2017
Interview on U.S. Jobs, Fed & ECB
Lakshman Achuthan's Reuters interview on U.S. Jobs, the Fed and ECB. More
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Mar 10 2017
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Rises
The USFIG inched up further in February, staying in a cyclical upswing. More
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Mar 08 2017
Cyclical Outlook Good, But Sustained 3-4% GDP Growth Unlikely
Interview highlights on near-term outlook, and specific items that need to improve for faster sustained growth. More
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Mar 08 2017
ECB Risks Inflation Surprise
The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge shows that the ECB is falling behind the curve. More
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Mar 06 2017
ECB Mistaking Structural for Cyclical
In sustaining massive amounts of QE, the ECB overlooks the reality that much of the labor market's problems are structural. More
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Feb 24 2017
Why Women Aren't Entering the Workforce Like They Were in '90s
A new study looks at the trend and the implications for Trump's economic agenda. More
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Feb 23 2017
How Reliable Are GDP Consensus Forecasts?
With President Trump in office, economists have been revising their GDP growth forecasts for 2017. More
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Feb 23 2017
RBI Sees Multiple Fed Rate Hikes
The continued cyclical upswing in ECRI's U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (that anticipates U.S. inflation) points to further increases in inflation. More
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Feb 14 2017
Financial Sense
U.S. Economy Experiencing Growth Upturn
After two years of slowing economic growth, leading indicators for the US have decisively turned upwards. More
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Feb 06 2017
Immigration, Women, Key to Job Growth Goals
With current rates of immigration maintained, population growth expected to fall .5% in ten years to .2%. More
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Feb 03 2017
Reuters Interview on Jobs and U.S. Inflation
Reuters interview with Lakshman Achuthan on jobs and U.S. inflation prospects. More
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Feb 03 2017
Future Inflation Gauge Leads Inflation Expectations
Last summer, when inflation expectations were near multiyear lows, the USFIG was already in a decisive upturn. More
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Feb 02 2017
Trump Will Need 'Dramatic Surge In Immigration' To Reach Job Goals
Absent "baby boom" demographics, and without a surge in immigration or women joining the labor force, it will be difficult to add 25 million jobs in 8 years. More
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Feb 01 2017
Women's Labor Force Participation Down, Capping Jobs & Economic Growth
The job growth promised by President Trump requires demographics the U.S. used to enjoy decades ago. More
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Jan 26 2017
Cutting Through the Confusion
Following the election, ECRI's unique perspective helped cut through the confusion about the state of the economy among mainstream economists. More
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Jan 23 2017
Global Economy Caught in Structural Straitjacket
The global economy is experiencing a period of rising growth and inflation, but these cyclical swings do not negate long-term structural trends. More
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Jan 17 2017
Disentangling Cyclical from Structural
Hong Kong presentation slides and notes. More
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