News
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Dec 07 2018
Falling Growth in Hours Worked
The slowdown ECRI flagged in the spring is coming into focus. More
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Nov 30 2018
Oil Price Plunge Foretold by Commodity Price Slide
As usual, the recent collapse in oil prices followed a cyclical downturn in industrial commodity price inflation. More
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Nov 12 2018
Construction Crumbling
A decisive deterioration in the construction sector outlook has occurred in the context of the worrisome downturn in home price growth. More
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Nov 08 2018
Interview Updating Market Correction Call
The cyclical risk of stock market corrections remains elevated as U.S. economic growth continues to slow. More
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Nov 07 2018
Markets Must Decide Which History to Believe
Industrial commodities send up a red flag. More
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Nov 01 2018
Eurozone: Growth Downturn, Inflation Upturn No Surprise
By mid-summer ECRI was forecasting a slowdown in Eurozone growth, just the opposite of ECB expectations. That forecast is now a fact. More
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Oct 27 2018
Why Trump May Be Right About the Fed
“The biggest risk is the Fed,” President Trump charged again last week. Meanwhile, ECRI analysis points “It’s a full-blown downturn, pointing to a further decline in inflation pressures.” More
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Oct 26 2018
Debt Alarm Ringing
The combined debt of the US, Eurozone, Japan, and China has increased more than ten times as much as their combined GDP growth over the past year. More
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Oct 25 2018
Is The U.S. Economy Slowing?
If the U.S. economy is slowing, who is going to be blamed? More
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Oct 24 2018
Economic Cycles & Stock Price Corrections
With at least one equity price correction during every economic slowdown, knowing where you are in the economic cycle is critical to managing portfolio risk. More
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Oct 23 2018
Damned Lies and Statistics
With GDP growth over 4% and the jobless rate under 4% people feel pretty good, but the last two times we saw this combination, in 2000 and way back in 1969, a recession was less than a year away. More
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Oct 23 2018
U.S. Not Immune to Global Slowdown
The U.S. economy is not as resilient as the headlines suggest, as a number of cycle downturns become clear, including home price growth and broad inflation. More
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Oct 22 2018
Radio Interview: ECRI’s Home Price Downturn Call
ECRI's Achuthan joins Bloomberg Opinion Radio to discuss "Housing Market Is Raising Serious Red Flags." More
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Oct 16 2018
ECRI’s Inflation Downturn Call
Achuthan joined Grant’s podcast to discuss ECRI’s cyclical worldview on inflation, home prices, EM and more. More
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Oct 15 2018
Worst Home Price Outlook Since 2009
A home price downturn is much more than a possible risk. More
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Oct 15 2018
Housing Market Is Raising Serious Red Flags
Real home price growth looks to have already entered a cyclical downturn that is likely to intensify as affordability worsens. More
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Oct 03 2018
Home Price Growth Downturn
Achuthan joined CNBC to discuss ECRI’s home price downturn call, the wealth effect, and borrowing vs. growth. More
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Sep 07 2018
Interview on Jobs Report, Wage Growth & Trade Sanctions
Achuthan discussed jobs report and how wage growth rising is consistent with a stealth slowdown in economic growth. Trade sanctions are also discussed. More
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Sep 04 2018
ECRI on EM vs. U.S. Growth
Bloomberg TV discussion about how emerging market weakness fits into ECRI’s public global cyclical outlook, including the U.S., and monetary policy. More
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Aug 31 2018
Will the Flattening Yield Curve Lead to Recession?
In contrast to the latest robust GDP readings, ECRI’s broader U.S. Coincident Index is below last October’s peak. More
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