News
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Aug 30 2019
Surveillance Podcast: Global Slowdown and Trade War
ECRI's Achuthan joins Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast to discuss global slowdown and U.S.-China trade war. More
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Aug 30 2019
China’s “Rust Belt” Problem
The Chinese cyclical slowdown continues, as they shore up their “rust belt.” More
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Aug 29 2019
Inflation Cycle, The Fed and Recession Risks
ECRI's Achuthan joined CNBC's 'The Exchange' to discuss the inflation cycle, Fed and recession risks. More
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Aug 20 2019
How an Economic Downturn Could Ravage Hollywood
“The yield curve is a very imperfect leading indicator of a recession, globally,” says Achuthan, calling it just a “piece of the puzzle.” More
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Aug 14 2019
Recession Risk, Rate Cuts and the Future Inflation Gauge
Recession risk is determined not by when the Fed stops rate hikes, but by when it starts a rate cut cycle. More
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Aug 01 2019
PMIs Have Not Bottomed Yet
ECRI leading index of PMIs predicts cyclical turns in the ISM and Markit U.S. manufacturing PMIs. More
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Jul 31 2019
The Elephant in the Room Forcing the Fed Rate Cut
The inflation cycle downturn leaves the Fed with no option but to cut rates. More
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Jul 17 2019
Interview: CSX Earnings and Productivity
ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined Yahoo Finance to discuss latest U.S. economic news topics. More
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Jul 17 2019
Interview: Using Data to Answer the Recession Question
Highlights of Real Vision discussion on our 2018 downturn call and updated public outlook. More
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Jul 16 2019
China and G7 Inflation
ECRI spoke with Bloomberg Daybreak Asia, about global industrial growth, inflation and China’s stimulus. More
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Jul 11 2019
Earning Growth Outlook Plunges
Earnings growth is highly sensitive to cycles in economic growth, so every cyclical slowdown sees a plunge in earnings growth. More
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Jul 08 2019
Interview: What will the Fed do?
"Elephant in the room" remains the inflation cycle downturn. More
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Jul 08 2019
Monthly Jobs Surveys May Overshoot Gains
Lakshman Achuthan joined Bloomberg Radio to discuss ECRI's latest opinion piece. More
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Jul 06 2019
US-China Feud Is Accelerating The Biggest Shift In Trade Since The Cold War, Away From Globalisation
Trend described as ‘deglobalisation’ and ‘balkanisation’ is leading to shorter supply chains as companies try to keep up with more sophisticated consumer demand. More
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Jul 05 2019
Great Headlines Mislead On Jobs
The headlines paint an overly rosy picture of the state of the labor market, after having exaggerated last year’s job growth. More
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Jul 05 2019
The Myth of the Tight U.S. Labor Market
Jobs growth is substantially slower than the headline employment data indicate. More
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Jul 01 2019
Notes from Spain
Fast fashion is the new model for all sorts of trade under deglobalisation. More
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Jun 28 2019
De-Globalization Diagnosis Predated Trade War
De-globalization has been happening for much of this decade, as its roots run much deeper than the trade war. So, while a resolution to trade disputes would be welcome, de-globalization will continue. More
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Jun 15 2019
Should the Fed Cut Rates in June?
ECRI’s research suggests the Fed should have begun a rate cut cycle last September. More
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Jun 10 2019
U.S. Inflation Cycle and More China Stimulus
ECRI’s Achuthan spoke with Bloomberg Daybreak Asia about ECRI’s inflation cycle research, how global slowing preceded the trade war, and why more Chinese stimulus is likely. More
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