News
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Apr 04 2020
A Nasty, Short and Bitter Recession
While we all appreciate the urgency of reopening the economy, saving lives is a precondition for saving livelihoods. More
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Apr 03 2020
Weekly Leading Index Drops
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate plummets to -26.9%. More
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Mar 27 2020
Weekly Leading Index Worst Since Great Recession
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate plummets to -15.5%. More
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Mar 20 2020
Weekly Leading Index Falls
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate decreases to -4.4%. More
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Mar 17 2020
Fed's Latest Rate Cut Was a Useless and Desperate Move
Cascading closures across the economy will necessarily cause a breakdown in demand. More
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Mar 13 2020
Weekly Leading Index Decreases
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate falls to -0.5%. More
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Mar 12 2020
School Closures Are Starting, And They’ll Have Far-Reaching Economic Impacts
School closures might hurt the economy, but keeping them open could make things worse. More
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Mar 06 2020
The Fed's Emergency Rate Cut Was A Big Mistake
Our research shows that the US economy came into this epidemic in more resilient cyclical shape than most realize. More
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Mar 06 2020
Weekly Leading Index Falls
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate decreases to 1.2%. More
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Feb 28 2020
Weekly Leading Index Edges Up
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index edges up, but growth rate falls further to 2.6%. More
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Feb 21 2020
A Predictable Pratfall
Yet again, ECRI’s Japanese Leading Index correctly flags a recession, in this case well ahead of the tax hike and coronavirus concerns. More
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Feb 21 2020
Weekly Leading Index Decreases
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate falls to 3.8%. More
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Feb 14 2020
Weekly Leading Index Slips
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate decreases to 4.8%. More
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Feb 07 2020
Weekly Leading Index Decreases
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate is little change at 5.9%. More
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Jan 24 2020
Weekly Leading Index Virtually Unchanged
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate rises to 5.2%. More
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Jan 22 2020
Hard Data Defies Confident Consensus
Weakening sales trends and wage growth underscore a sustained slowdown in spending. More
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Jan 17 2020
Weekly Leading Index Rises
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate increases to 4.4%. More
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Jan 10 2020
Weekly Leading Index Increases
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate rises to 3.3%. More
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Jan 03 2020
Weekly Leading Index Ticks Up
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate edges down to 2.3%. More
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Dec 24 2019
2019 Private Cycle Calls in Review
See how the year unfolded for our clients, who were prepared for a continued global growth slowdown, no upturn in U.S. growth and inflation, and the Fed’s collision with the economic cycle. More
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