News
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Jan 13 2023
Opinion: Don't Be Fooled, A Recession Really Is Coming
Yet some argue that the strength of the labor market will keep the economy out of recession. More
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Dec 06 2022
Don't Miss The Forest For The Trees In Conflicting Data
What happens when two surveys that purport to measure the same thing show diverging results? Cyclical analysis reveals the true trend. More
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Nov 17 2022
Interview: India's Exports Won’t Rebound Before Mid-2023
Read ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan discussion on the hit to India's growth from weak global demand should not be underestimated. More
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Jul 30 2022
Why Some People Actually Want A Recession (And Others Say That's Crazy)
Recessions can be cleansing events for the economy as a whole, forcing inefficient behemoths out of business and making room for more nimble competitors who can better satisfy customer needs. More
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Jul 29 2022
Opinion: The Types Of Jobs To Look For (And Avoid) During A Recession
Strike while the job market is hot, rather than after things have gone cold. More
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Jul 28 2022
Does Two Down Quarters of GDP Mean Recession?
There is much confusion around recession definition and GDP. More
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Jul 18 2022
An Unrivaled Track Record
Suddenly everyone’s a recession expert. Yet, most don’t know what a recession is, let alone correctly predicted one. More
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Jun 01 2022
Input to a Decision-Making Process
A key reason for ECRI as an input to a decision-making process is evident by reviewing the periods when we diverged from the consensus in real-time. More
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May 26 2022
Opinion: It's Time To Prepare For A Recession
The economy is close to entering a recession, perhaps as soon as this year. To avoid taking too much of a financial hit, Americans will need to prepare. More
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May 05 2022
Translating Cycle Research Into Actionable Insights
U.S. economic growth has a major impact on investment strategy and business decisions. More
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Dec 03 2021
Jobs Growth Trending Down
Jobs growth continues its clear downtrend. More
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Dec 02 2021
Growth Slowdowns and Markets
Slowdowns in economic growth see a flattening in the Dow and Russell 2000 punctuated by sharp spikes down. More
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Nov 18 2021
Consumer Spending Cools Off
In sharp contrast to the prevailing optimism, ECRI analysis shows consumer spending is in a cyclical slowdown that will weigh on holiday sales. More
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Oct 08 2021
Job Growth Eases
Job growth has eased in line with our earlier call. More
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Sep 17 2021
Downturn In The Global Industrial Economy
A lot of people are excited about the runup in commodities. We're saying directionally you got to look the other way. More
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Aug 27 2021
Weekly Leading Index Decreases
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate drops. More
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Aug 04 2021
The US Economic Recovery Has Been Record-breaking. Don't Get Used To It
Despite the continued optimism about the reopening, US economic growth is already starting to slow. More
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Jul 23 2021
Weekly Leading Index Drops
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate slows. More
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Jul 16 2021
The Beginning of a Broader Downturn for Commodities
The commodity market has been red hot this year, but the tide appears to be turning. More
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Jul 09 2021
Longer Leads are Critical
It's hard to get ahead of the crowd by focusing on widely followed metrics, because by definition you won't get much of an early heads up, which makes all the difference. More
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