News
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Jul 02 2020
Weekly Leading Index Virtually Unchanged
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate increases further to -8.7%. More
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Jun 26 2020
Weekly Leading Index Eases
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate rises further to -12.6%. More
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Jun 24 2020
Interview: Short Recession Call Revisited
A review of ECRI’s April 2020 public short recession call, and updated questions and answers. More
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Jun 24 2020
Yes, We're in a Recession. But the Market's Rally Still Makes Perfect Sense
With the economy officially in the deepest recession in living memory, the stock market's ongoing rally can seem baffling. More
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Jun 19 2020
Weekly Leading Index Rises
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate increases further to -14.9%. More
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Jun 13 2020
Why a Ruinous Recession and Soaring Stocks Make Perfect Sense
A rising equity market historically leads an upturn in the business cycle. More
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Jun 12 2020
Weekly Leading Index Increases
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate rises further to -18.5%. More
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Jun 05 2020
Weekly Leading Index Rises
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate increases further to -22.1%. More
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Jun 05 2020
Employment Dives Followed by Solid Uptick
The question is when that virtuous cycle will begin to gain traction. This is where good leading indexes – not politics, epidemiology, or therapeutics – are critical to watch. More
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Jun 04 2020
A Recovery Call that is Still Contrarian
History repeats itself. As ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index points to recovery, the Conference Board’s LEI and the OECD’s CLI keep falling. More
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May 29 2020
Weekly Leading Index Increases
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate rises further to -25.1%. More
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May 27 2020
The Stock Market and Consumer Sentiment Are Telling Different Stories
Stocks have rebounded off March lows, while sentiment is near the lowest level in nearly a decade. More
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May 22 2020
Weekly Leading Index Rises
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate increases to -28.8%. More
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May 11 2020
The Business Cycle Basics of this Recession
Understanding the depth, diffusion and duration of this downturn. More
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May 08 2020
Weekly Leading Index Rises
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate increases to -35.9%. More
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May 08 2020
Fastest Job Loss Ever
Eventually, the hemorrhaging of jobs will be stanched, and employment will start rising. But even that would be far from enough for things to start feeling better. More
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May 01 2020
Weekly Leading Index Increases
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate rises to -38.8%. More
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Apr 24 2020
Weekly Leading Index Rises
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate edges up to -41.9%. More
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Apr 23 2020
The Three D’s and High-Frequency Leading Indicators
We measure recessions with the Three D’s: depth, diffusion and duration. Here’s what we are watching for signs of recovery. More
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Apr 09 2020
Weekly Leading Index Decreases
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate drops to a record low of -37.2%. More
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