News
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May 20 2019
Business Cycle’s Demise Greatly Exaggerated
Business cycles remain part and parcel of every market-oriented economy. More
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Apr 20 2018
Levy Economics Institute
Are We Really "Normalizing?"
The danger of confusing cyclical with structural: see slide deck with notes. More
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Jun 13 2017
Turning Points: The Long and Short of It
Here are the key turning points underpinning the economic angst that won't go away. More
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Apr 19 2017
Levy Economics Institute
"America First" in Perspective
Presentation slides & notes presented at this week's Minsky conference. More
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Apr 15 2016
Flawed Assumptions and Grand Experiments
Minsky conference slides and audio. More
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Jun 17 2015
Shifting Patterns in Recessions and Recoveries
Slides and notes from Madrid Fund Forum Conference. More
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Apr 23 2015
Minsky Conference Slides with Notes
A record plunge in oil price volatility played a key role in moderating economic cycle volatility in the 2011-13 period. More
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Apr 17 2015
Minsky Conference Audio with Slides
The very idea that this has been a sub-par recovery is a long-standing misunderstanding. More
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Mar 07 2014
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Rises
"Despite its recent uptick, the USFIG remains below its earlier highs," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release, "Thus, underlying inflation pressures are still in check." More
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Mar 08 2013
Recession in the Yo-Yo Years
Year-over-year growth in nonfarm payroll jobs has now dropped to an 18-month low, and household job growth has dropped to a 16-month low. See images and notes on the state of the business cycle. More
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Dec 07 2012
The Tell-Tale Chart
Reviewing the indicators used to officially decide U.S. recession dates, it looks like the recession began around July 2012. More
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Sep 30 2012
Updated Growth Rate Cycle Dates
We have recently updated the latest growth rate cycle peak date for Switzerland. More
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Sep 13 2012
The 2012 Recession: Are We There Yet?
Nine months ago we knew that, sitting here today, most people probably would not realize that we are in recession – and we do believe we are in recession. More
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Sep 06 2012
New Zealand Business Cycle Trough
ECRI has established a new business cycle trough date for New Zealand. More
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Jul 30 2012
New Growth Rate Cycle Peaks for Russia and South Africa
Today ECRI is announcing new growth rate cycle peak dates for Russia and South Africa. More
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Jul 26 2012
New Russian Leading Index
ECRI announces the addition of Leading and Coincident Indexes for Russia which completes our coverage of the BRICS, providing essential cyclical coverage for these increasingly important countries. More
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May 09 2012
Revoking Recession: 48th Time's the Charm?
Has personal income growth ever remained this low for three months without the economy going into recession? More
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Mar 22 2012
The Yo-Yo Years
Presentation slides and notes from Frankfurt conference about the risk of contagion, explaining why both developed and developing economies are now in the "Yo-Yo Years." More
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Mar 15 2012
Why Our Recession Call Stands
Many have questioned why, in the face of improving economic data, ECRI has maintained its recession call. The straight answer is that the objective economic indicators we monitor give us no choice. More
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Mar 07 2012
New Growth Rate Cycle Dates
We have recently determined growth rate cycle peak dates for France, Italy and Switzerland. More
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