News
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Oct 09 2019
Consumer Spending Growth Slowing
The downturn in consumer spending growth fits with the jobs growth slowdown. More
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Oct 02 2019
ISM Mfg, Jobs & Consumer
ISM Mfg at worst reading since June 2009 underscores that the slowdown ECRI predicted long ago is worse than analysts expected. More
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Sep 27 2019
Eurozone Looking Better
People are convinced that the Eurozone is going into recession, but our work reveals that’s too pessimistic because it’s too simplistic. More
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Sep 25 2019
Japan Recession Risk
While many countries around the world are fighting global trade headwinds, it’s much worse for Japan. More
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Sep 24 2019
Cyclical Upturn in India
From a cyclical perspective India is looking better, with ECRI’s leading indexes showing a trough in the current slowdown. More
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Sep 24 2019
The U.S. Jobs Slowdown is Important
U.S. jobs growth, already at an 8-year low, will keep falling, undermining consumer spending. More
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Sep 23 2019
Industrial Slowdown Grips China and the U.S.
Despite the ups and downs of trade talks, the global industrial growth continues with knock-on effects for China and the U.S. More
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Sep 05 2019
Jobs Growth Prospects Dim
Leading Employment Index growth, which nailed the current jobs slowdown, has fallen sharply. More
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Sep 01 2019
Central Bank Failures and Recession Risks
Updates to ECRI’s U.S. and China slowdown calls, and monetary policy dilemmas in the context of Grand Experiments launched post-GFC. More
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Aug 30 2019
Worsening U.S. Slowdown
Discussion about the ongoing turns in U.S. economic growth and inflation. More
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Aug 30 2019
China’s “Rust Belt” Problem
The Chinese cyclical slowdown continues, as they shore up their “rust belt.” More
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Aug 29 2019
Inflation Cycle, The Fed and Recession Risks
ECRI's Achuthan joined CNBC's 'The Exchange' to discuss the inflation cycle, Fed and recession risks. More
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Jul 17 2019
Interview: CSX Earnings and Productivity
ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined Yahoo Finance to discuss latest U.S. economic news topics. More
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Jul 17 2019
Interview: Using Data to Answer the Recession Question
Highlights of Real Vision discussion on our 2018 downturn call and updated public outlook. More
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Jul 16 2019
China and G7 Inflation
ECRI spoke with Bloomberg Daybreak Asia, about global industrial growth, inflation and China’s stimulus. More
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Jul 11 2019
Earning Growth Outlook Plunges
Earnings growth is highly sensitive to cycles in economic growth, so every cyclical slowdown sees a plunge in earnings growth. More
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Jul 08 2019
Interview: What will the Fed do?
"Elephant in the room" remains the inflation cycle downturn. More
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Jun 15 2019
Should the Fed Cut Rates in June?
ECRI’s research suggests the Fed should have begun a rate cut cycle last September. More
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Jun 10 2019
U.S. Inflation Cycle and More China Stimulus
ECRI’s Achuthan spoke with Bloomberg Daybreak Asia about ECRI’s inflation cycle research, how global slowing preceded the trade war, and why more Chinese stimulus is likely. More
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Jun 07 2019
Inflation, the Fed and the FIG
The Fed and the bond market have both been way behind the curve in anticipating the inflation cycle downturn. ECRI’s U.S. Future Inflation Gauge was far more prescient. More
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