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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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WLI Ticks Up, but Growth Weakens


A measure of future U.S. economic growth ticked higher in the latest week, but the annualized growth rate fell to its lowest level in nearly a year, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 123.0 in the week ended Sept 2 from 122.4 the previous week. That was originally reported as 122.5.

It was a three-week high for the leading index. But the index's annualized growth rate tumbled to its lowest level since late October 2010, falling to minus 6.2 percent from minus 4.4 percent a week earlier.

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Recession Risk Rising

CNN September 2, 2011

"As if Friday's report that showed job creation at a dead stall wasn't bad enough, economists say the worst could be yet to come. More