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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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WLI Ticks Down


A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged lower in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate also sagged, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index slipped to 121.3 in the week ended Dec 16 from 122.3 the previous week.

The index's annualized growth rate dipped to minus 7.7 percent from minus 7.5 percent a week earlier.

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Forecasting Fog

New York Times December 18, 2011

The American economy certainly isn’t at peak strength. With unemployment at a painfully high 8.6 percent, it can’t be. More

 

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