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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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WLI Steady


A weekly gauge of the U.S. economy held steady, a report showed on Friday.

In the week to May 23, the Economic Cycle Research Institute's weekly leading index held unchanged at 121.5, compared with a revised 121.5 in the previous week.

"There are positives and negatives here really," said ECRI research director Anirvan Banerji.

The index's growth rate, a four-week moving average that smoothes out weekly fluctuations, rose to 4.0 percent from 3.2 percent the week before.

"The bigger picture is more important. We've seen an increase in the smoothed growth rate from just before the war. Pre-war jitters had pulled the index down and since then we've seen a fairly steady improvement. Now it's at a 45-week high," Banerji said.