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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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WLI Slips


A measure of future U.S. economic growth declined modestly in the latest week, though the annualized growth rate improved, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index dipped to 122.8 in the week ended Jan 20 from a revised 123.3 the previous week. That was originally reported as 123.4.

The index's annualized growth rate gained to minus 6.5 percent from a revised minus 7.6 percent a week earlier.

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Forecasting Fog

New York Times December 18, 2011

The American economy certainly isn’t at peak strength. With unemployment at a painfully high 8.6 percent, it can’t be. More