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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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WLI Rises


A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose in the latest week to its highest level in five months, while the annualized growth rate also improved, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index for the week ended Jan 13 climbed to 123.4, the highest level since August, from a revised 121.1 the previous week.

That figure was originally reported as 121.2. The index's annualized growth rate improved to its highest level since September at minus 7.5 percent from minus 8.6 percent.

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Forecasting Fog

New York Times December 18, 2011

The American economy certainly isn’t at peak strength. With unemployment at a painfully high 8.6 percent, it can’t be. More