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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Will recession become something worse?


...“It is certainly plausible that the kinds of policy measures that have been good enough to tame the business cycle are no longer adequate in a fast-moving, highly leveraged, highly networked economy,” said Anirvan Banerji of the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

Today’s economic indicators don’t project a depression. But Banerji is cautious. Economic data in 1929 didn’t show the stock market crash was about to lead to years of economic misery, either. “The Great Depression didn’t start out as a depression,” Banerji said. “It started out as a recession....”
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