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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Why Rising Interest Rates May Be a Good Sign


Now that a collapse of the U.S. banking system seems unlikely, stock-market watchers have found a new thing to worry about: rising interest rates. The yield on the government's 10-year Treasury bond is up 65% this year to a recent 3.83%...

"...Interest rates always rise when things are improving," says Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at the Economic Cycle Research Institute. "If higher interest rates choked off recoveries, then we would always be in recession."
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