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During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Weekly Leading Index Slips


... A [leading] gauge of the U.S. economy... slip[ped] in the latest week, a report said on Friday.

ECRI, an independent forecasting group, said its weekly leading index slipped to 134.3 in the week ended Sept. 16 from a downwardly revised 134.7 in the prior week. "In the last couple of weeks we're starting to see the Katrina impact," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of ECRI.

This is the third reading of the weekly leading index since Katrina hit the U.S. Gulf Coast on Aug. 29.

The index's annualized growth rate eased to 2.2 percent in the week from a downwardly revised 2.7 percent a week earlier.

"The real question is will the economy be left standing after the one-two punch of Katrina and Rita?" Achuthan said.

"However, the weekly leading index shows the economy is not buckling under the various shocks and we don't have any indication of collapse."