A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



Weekly Leading Index Falls

A gauge of future economic activity in the U.S. fell last week, according to the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

The ECRI’s leading index for the week ending Dec. 23 fell to 120.9 from 121.3 in the previous week.

The growth rate, which is designed to minimize monthly fluctuations, fell to 7.6 percent.

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Forecasting Fog

New York Times December 18, 2011

The American economy certainly isn’t at peak strength. With unemployment at a painfully high 8.6 percent, it can’t be. More


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