A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



Weekly Leading Index Falls

A leading index of the U.S. economy fell in the latest week...

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, an independent forecasting group, said its weekly leading index (WLI) fell to to 131.4 in the week ended Dec. 31 compared with an upwardly revised 133.8 in the previous week.

"Its the first down tick in the growth rate in 10 weeks," Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of ECRI, said.

The index's annualized growth rate, which smooths out weekly fluctuations, fell to 0.7 percent from 1.4 percent in the prior week.

"In spite of subdued job growth and a downtick in the growth rate of the WLI, the cyclical outlook for economic growth remains stable," Achuthan said.