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US Poised for Stronger Recovery than Expected

A weekly measure of future U.S. economic growth rose in the latest week, while its yearly growth rate surged to a 38-year high that suggests the recovery is on track.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 124.7 in the week to August 28 from a downwardly revised 124.3 in the previous week, originally reported as 124.4.

The index's annualized growth rate rose to 20.8 percent from 19.6 percent a week earlier. The latest reading was the index's highest yearly growth rate since the week to May 21, 1971, when it stood at 21.3 percent.

"With WLI growth rising to a new 38-year high, U.S. economic growth is poised for a stronger snap-back than most expect," said ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan.

ECRI has predicted that the longest U.S. recession in more than a half-century will end before the summer is out.

Last week, Achuthan said a double-dip recession in the fourth quarter is "out of the question."