Achuthan discusses ECRI's call for recession to begin by mid 2012, and how it typically takes about half a year after a recession begins before a negative real-time GDP print is released.

Note: Achuthan discusses the recessionary decline in jobs and income growth. To clarify, in the past 60 years we haven’t seen an economic slowdown where year-over-year jobs growth has dropped this low without recession. Also, for the last three months year-over-year growth in real personal income has stayed lower than it was at the start of each of the last ten recessions.