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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Update to Feb Interview


Achuthan discusses ECRI's call for recession to begin by mid 2012, and how it typically takes about half a year after a recession begins before a negative real-time GDP print is released.

Note: Achuthan discusses the recessionary decline in jobs and income growth. To clarify, in the past 60 years we haven’t seen an economic slowdown where year-over-year jobs growth has dropped this low without recession. Also, for the last three months year-over-year growth in real personal income has stayed lower than it was at the start of each of the last ten recessions.

Related News & Events

Revoking Recession: 48th Time's the Charm?

ECRI May 9, 2012

Has personal income growth ever remained this low for three months without the economy going into recession? More

 

Recession Update

Bloomberg May 9, 2012

For the past three months, year-over-year real personal income growth has stayed lower than it was at the start of each of the last ten recessions. More

 

U.S. Growth at 21-Month Low

CNBC February 24, 2012

The hard data which officially define recession show that U.S. economic growth has been slowing, not reviving. More