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U.S. Long Leading Index Update

Red-hot recovery

The U.S. Long Leading Index is well above its pre-recession highs," reports the Economic Cycle Research Institute (the same ECRI that saw the recession coming), "and its growth rate is at a 52-month high.

The pronounced, pervasive and persistent cyclical upturn in the USLLI points to a business cycle recovery, with no double dip in sight.

What do you mean by inflation?

Worrying about the next cycle of inflation, we are not quite (but almost) a committee of one. In January, the Future Inflation Gauge of the Economic Cycle Research Institute plunged to its lowest level since August 1975. "Thus," concludes Anirvan Banerji, director of research at ECRI, "inflation pressures remain at generational lows, pointing to subdued inflation in 2002.