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During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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U.S. Inflationary Pressures Fall


U.S. inflationary pressures fell a bit in December...

The Economic Cycle Research Institute's Future Inflation Gauge, which is designed to anticipate cyclical swings in the rate of inflation, fell to 117.9 in December from an upwardly revised 118.7 in November, the research group said.

Underlying inflationary pressures decreased slightly in December, but are still elevated, the report said.

The index's annualized growth rate, which smooths out monthly fluctuations, dropped to 2.1 percent in December from a revised 4.1 percent in November.

"Despite weaker than expected jobs growth, underlying inflationary pressures remain close the March 2004 highs," said Lakshman Achuthan, Managing Director of ECRI.