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U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Falls


A monthly measure of U.S. inflation pressures dipped in February after rising for 10 straight months, but upward cyclical trends in prices still hold, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute's U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG), designed to anticipate cyclical swings in the rate of inflation, slipped to 101.4 in February from 102.1 in January, which was revised slightly higher from an original 102.0.

While the gauge's January dip follows 10 months of consecutive growth in the index, ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan said the group maintains its forecast that prices will continue to move steadily upward.

"Despite its first downtick in 11 months, the USFIG remains in a cyclical uptrend, with underlying inflation pressures continuing to trend upward," said Achuthan.

The December USFIG annualized growth rate, which smooths out monthly fluctuations, also fell, to 31.3 percent from 38.0 percent in January, which was revised up from 37.8 percent.
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