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During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Falls


U.S. inflation pressures fell in January... a report said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute's U.S. Future Inflation Gauge, which is designed to anticipate cyclical swings in the rate of inflation, fell to 119.5 in January from 120.1 in December, revised up from 119.6.

"The USFIG remains in a cyclical downswing that began in the fall of 2005. Thus, U.S. inflation pressures continue to ebb, even as economic growth prospects improve further," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.

The index's annualized growth rate, which smooths out monthly fluctuations, dropped to minus 2.8 percent from an upwardly revised minus 2.1 percent in December.