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U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Falls


U.S. inflation pressures fell in March...

The Economic Cycle Research Institute's U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG), which is designed to anticipate cyclical swings in the rate of inflation, fell to 121.3 in March from a downwardly revised 122.6. It was originally pegged at 123.1.

"The USFIG has now declined in four of the last five months, and is now at an eight-month low. Thus, there are tentative signs of some moderation in underlying inflation pressures," the report said.

"The level dropped more than a point which is a notable move, the USFIG is bucking the trend of today's employment report which came a little stronger than expected," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director for ECRI.

The index's annualized growth rate, which smoothes out monthly fluctuations, fell to 0.3 percent from a downwardly revised 2.8 percent in February. The growth rate was originally pegged at 3.5 percent.

"If you step back ... underlying inflationary pressures are beginning to moderate," Achuthan said.