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U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Edges Up

An index designed to anticipate cyclical turning points in inflation edged up in March, but remains in a longer downtrend since reaching a peak in October 2005.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute said Friday that its future inflation gauge rose to 118.6 in March from a downwardly revised 118.5 in February. February had initially been reported as 118.7.

At the same time, a smoothed version of the annualized growth rate stayed in negative territory in March at a reading of -3.1%, from a revised -3.6% in February. February's reading had initially been reported as -3.3%.

The future inflation gauge was pushed up in March.... These gains were partly offset by a disinflationary move...

"Despite a slight uptick, the U.S. future inflation gauge is still in the cyclical downtrend that began in the fall of 2005," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI. "Thus, U.S. inflation pressures remain relatively subdued."