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U.S. Future Inflation Gauge at 10-Month High


A gauge of U.S. inflation pressures rose sharply to a ten-month high in August, indicating that deflation is unlikely under current economic conditions, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute's U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG), designed to anticipate cyclical swings in the rate of inflation, rose to 89.6 in August from 84.6 in July.

The index has now risen from a 51-year low in March to a ten-month high, said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.

"Thus, the risk of deflation has clearly dissipated for now, but inflation is not yet a clear and present danger," he said.

The July USFIG annualized growth rate, which smoothes out monthly fluctuations, shot higher to 6.5 percent from negative 8.8 percent in July, revised from negative 8.6 percent.
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